en.Wedoany.com Reported - Middle East tensions have flared up again, yet air cargo rates continue to edge lower. The market is caught in a web of weak demand on certain routes, rising fuel costs, and carrier network adjustments.

According to the Freightos Air Index, global rates have eased to approximately $2.82 per kilogram, down from a peak of about $3.35 per kilogram in May, but still above levels seen at the start of the year.

Meanwhile, airlines continue to announce new routes, increased frequencies, and additional freighter capacity. DHL Express this week increased its committed order for Mammoth Freighters-converted 777-200LRF aircraft from 9 to 13 units; Qatar Airways Cargo added a seasonal London freighter route and extra capacity to Dallas, Brussels, Tokyo, Dhaka, and Entebbe; Saudia Cargo launched a new Melbourne freighter route and signed an interline agreement with Riyadh Cargo; Royal Air Maroc unveiled four new European destinations, adding bellyhold capacity to its Casablanca hub.

Rotate data shows that for the week ending July 30, freighter capacity was flat versus the prior week, but is increasingly being shifted toward stronger trade lanes. Routes such as Leipzig–Dubai, Hong Kong–Dubai, and Muscat–Dubai all recorded significant week-on-week growth, while transpacific routes including Shanghai–Los Angeles and Los Angeles–Seoul also strengthened. Conversely, following the introduction of EU parcel regulations, several Europe-related and traditional e-commerce corridors have softened.

This picture broadly aligns with the latest weekly analysis from WorldACD: Hong Kong–Europe volumes fell 24% year-on-year, while China–Europe volumes declined 10%. In contrast, China–US volumes rose 19% year-on-year, and Asia-Pacific–US spot rates remain 36% higher than the same period last year.

David Kerr, founder of JTD Advisory, believes the market is sending conflicting signals. In his latest market briefing, he wrote: "Rate indices and the actual market are pointing in different directions." He noted that jet fuel costs are nearly 66% higher than a year ago, while the Baltic Air Freight Index has fallen for four consecutive weeks. He argues that rising fuel costs have "not yet been passed through" to cargo rates, partly due to pricing lags and partly because weak Asia–Europe e-commerce demand is masking tighter underlying supply.

This view also reflects a structural shift underway in Europe. Citing Aevean capacity data, Kerr noted that freighter capacity entering Europe from Asia-Pacific and the Middle East this month is down 14% versus June, equivalent to a reduction of 18 widebody freighter flights per day; airports heavily reliant on e-commerce flows, such as Budapest, Madrid, and Luxembourg, have seen the most pronounced declines. He believes operators are not abandoning aircraft but redeploying them to markets with stronger economics.

There are also early signs that fuel costs may again begin to influence pricing. Cathay Cargo, which reviews its Hong Kong export fuel surcharge every two weeks, has reversed several months of reductions and raised the surcharge for the first half of August following the latest uptick in jet fuel prices. Meanwhile, container shipping lines including CMA CGM, MSC, Maersk, and ONE have also announced new emergency fuel surcharges in response to the renewed escalation of the Middle East conflict.

The market continues to show resilience. Rates have pulled back from May's peak but have not collapsed; freighter capacity in July was down 1% versus June, while inbound e-commerce demand into Europe has weakened.