ExxonMobil Raises 2050 Global Carbon Emissions Forecast to 30 Billion Tons

en.Wedoany.com Reported - On September 17, ExxonMobil released its 2026 Global Energy Outlook, raising its forecast for global energy-related annual carbon dioxide emissions in 2050 to approximately 30 billion tons, up from 27 billion tons in the previous year's forecast. Under the new outlook, global energy-related carbon emissions are expected to peak at approximately 36 billion tons per year this decade, then continue to decline, falling about 20% from current levels by 2050.

The slower decline in coal is one of the main changes in this forecast revision. ExxonMobil expects coal's share of the global primary energy mix to fall from about 25% in 2025 to 15% by 2050, but the 2050 share is 1 percentage point higher than in the previous forecast. In terms of actual consumption, the new outlook projects global coal use in 2050 will be about 30% lower than current levels, compared with a decline of about 35% in the 2025 outlook.

The new outlook also downgraded its forecast for carbon capture and storage scale. ExxonMobil expects that by 2050, the global volume of carbon dioxide processed through carbon capture and storage technology will be approximately 2 billion tons, down from 3.1 billion tons in the previous forecast. The company predicts that by 2050, the deployment scale of hydrogen, carbon capture and storage, and biofuels will reach approximately 30 times, 60 times, and 2 times current levels, respectively.

Regarding the energy demand structure, ExxonMobil maintained its forecast of global oil demand at approximately 105 million barrels per day in 2050, higher than the current level of slightly over 100 million barrels per day; natural gas demand is expected to rise to approximately 520 billion cubic feet per day, an increase of about 20% from current levels. By 2050, oil and natural gas are expected to still account for more than half of global energy supply.

The growth rate of electricity demand has been adjusted. The new outlook projects that global electricity demand in 2050 will increase by about 65% compared with 2025, with the industrial sector contributing about 40% of new demand, and residential, commercial, and transportation electrification each contributing about 20%. Solar and wind power generation is expected to grow more than fourfold, meeting about 85% of new global electricity demand; natural gas power generation is expected to grow by about 25% over the same period.

ExxonMobil expects the global population to increase by about 1.5 billion by 2050, global GDP to grow by about 80%, and energy consumption in developing countries to increase by about 25% from current levels. The company said the Global Energy Outlook is used to assess changes in energy supply and demand through 2050 and serves as the basis for its long-term business planning and investment decisions, with the forecast model integrating factors such as economic growth, technological progress, consumer behavior, and climate policy.