Postdoctoral researcher Şahin Akın from the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) and his research team conducted a study on resource utilization in the housing sector in West Asia and North Africa for 2050. The results, published in Sustainable Cities and Society, show that greenhouse gas emissions in the region could be reduced by up to 56% in the next 25 years.
Akın stated that the study investigated the resource efficiency of nearly 1,000 different types of residences across 19 countries in West Asia and North Africa, and explored various possible scenarios over the next 25 years. These regions have large economic disparities and are strongly affected by climate change. Residential buildings account for 21% of global energy consumption, and materials used in housing construction contribute 30% to the global carbon footprint of material production.
The study particularly focused on the characteristics of three housing types: detached houses, multi-family houses, and high-rise/apartment buildings, and also included informal housing. In most of these countries, poverty is prevalent, informal settlements account for a large proportion of total housing, and although energy consumption is low, material consumption is high.
The research team developed a dynamic stock model using housing prototype data to evaluate 10 future scenarios involving six individual strategies and four combinations. The study areas included the Caucasus countries (Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Armenia), resource-rich countries on the Arabian Peninsula (UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman), as well as Egypt, Algeria, Morocco, and Turkey. Building methods in these regions have been improved over generations, using local materials and solutions adapted to local climate and economy, enabling natural cooling and ventilation. However, in Gulf countries, due to economic growth, changes in architectural styles and lifestyles have significantly increased energy consumption, reflected in the rise of Western architectural styles, increased use of concrete, air conditioning, and higher living standards. Among these, concrete use and cooling energy are the main culprits behind increased emissions.
Akın studied various scenarios for reducing energy use, material consumption, and associated greenhouse gas emissions. The model shows that a comprehensive strategy can reduce operational emissions by 60% and material-related emissions by 47%, leading to a 56% reduction in total greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.
The study set a “business as usual” scenario as the baseline, assuming no measures are taken, which showed rising emission levels. It is expected that by 2050, the region's population will surge, people will pursue more comfortable lives, move from informal to formal housing, greatly increasing energy and material demand, and may switch to electric air conditioning, abandoning traditional building practices.
In addition, the study tested 10 resource efficiency scenarios, focusing on materials, energy, fuel and energy preferences, and strategy combinations. Given that most countries are located in deserts with hot climates, measures such as applying reflective white paint to all new buildings to reflect sunlight, using heat pumps and controlled lighting, adopting eco-friendly concrete, and reducing per capita housing area were tested. The impact of different combinations on energy consumption, material use, and greenhouse gas emissions varies by type and country, but combined scenarios yield the best emission reduction results. The combination of all measures achieves the best overall reduction effect in the region, with a potential emission reduction of up to 56%.
Akın emphasized that this is only an exercise based on models representing housing types in the region, but acquiring knowledge can lead to informed choices. He believes that implementing the necessary measures will take time, and stressed the importance of involving local people at all levels. Local experts should develop solutions based on local building conditions. He also believes that artificial intelligence will become a powerful tool for such plans in the future, and he was surprised by the large-scale emission reductions shown in the model's actual results.
