A study published in Nature Climate Change shows that shortages of certain minerals could pose constraints on global climate mitigation strategies.
These minerals include silver and tin, which play a critical role in decarbonizing energy systems and ensuring that global warming by 2100 remains below 1.5°C or 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels. The findings highlight the need to develop strategies that address both emissions reduction and mineral resource security, while improving recycling, material substitution, and international cooperation.
Achieving the climate goals of the Paris Agreement requires sustainable access to critical materials for developing low-carbon energy technologies. For example, lithium and cobalt are essential components of electric vehicles and energy storage systems, while tellurium and gallium are necessary for solar panels. Shortages of these materials could hinder the transition to renewable energy.
Wei Yiming and colleagues quantified the demand for and shortage risks of 40 critical minerals across 17 technologies—including solar, wind, and biomass power—under various Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) mitigation pathways.
The research team found that, among the 557 mitigation pathways tested, even with improvements in technology and recycling, all scenarios would still face shortages of up to 12 minerals by 2100 under pathways limiting global warming to below 2°C relative to pre-industrial levels. These minerals include indium, iridium, tin, lithium, and silver. Professor Wei and co-authors noted that these shortages could affect multiple technologies, including solar, wind, nuclear power, and energy storage batteries. In addition, some developing countries—particularly in the Middle East, Africa, and South Asia—could face shortages of up to 24 minerals.
The authors suggest that adopting more efficient technologies could resolve some shortages—for example, replacing current cobalt-containing battery systems with alternatives such as lithium iron phosphate—but this could in turn exacerbate shortages of other minerals. More broadly, Wei and colleagues recommend that countries strengthen trade cooperation and improve recycling efficiency to mitigate potential mineral shortages.
