UK Environment Agency publishes winter agricultural reservoir refill risk report, with four regions facing prominent risks

en.Wedoany.com Reported - On November 2, the UK Environment Agency published the "Winter 2026–2027 Agricultural Storage Reservoir Refill Outlook Report," setting three scenarios of 100%, 80%, and 60% of the long-term average rainfall for England from November 2026 to March 2027 to assess agricultural irrigation reservoir refill risks. The report identifies the West Midlands, Devon, Cornwall, and East Anglia as key risk regions, and estimates that these areas may be unable to complete reservoir refill before spring 2027 under insufficient rainfall conditions.

Under the scenario of winter rainfall reaching 100% of the long-term average, most agricultural storage reservoirs in England are expected to receive sufficient refill before spring, but the refill outlook for the West Midlands, Devon, Cornwall, and East Anglia is only moderate. The report estimates that river flows and groundwater levels in some areas of these regions may not recover sufficiently, potentially triggering localized abstraction restrictions.

When winter rainfall drops to 80% of the long-term average, the agricultural reservoir refill outlook for southern, central, and eastern England falls to moderate, while the West Midlands, Devon, Cornwall, and East Anglia fall to poor. The UK Environment Agency estimates that some catchments may implement spray irrigation abstraction restrictions under Section 57 of the Water Resources Act 1991 during the 2027 irrigation season.

Under the scenario where rainfall reaches only 60% of the long-term average, agricultural reservoirs in multiple regions of England are expected to be unable to recover to water levels sufficient to meet irrigation demand before spring 2027. The report estimates that low-flow river abstraction restrictions in winter may be implemented on a wide scale and extend into the following spring, with some areas potentially facing measures to completely halt spray irrigation abstraction during the irrigation season.

Hydrological monitoring data show that rainfall in England in September 2026 was only 65% of the long-term average. As of October 24, cumulative October rainfall reached 99% of the long-term average for the same period. Recent rainfall has led to recovery in river flows at approximately three-quarters of monitoring stations, but more than half of stations remain below normal levels; a total of 4 monitoring stations are classified as exceptionally low flow: the Ely Ouse river in eastern England, the Derwent and Swale rivers in northeastern England, and the Tone river in the southwest.

The UK Environment Agency also announced agricultural water use support measures. Existing abstraction licence holders may, under Regulatory Position Statement RPS 382, abstract water outside their original licensed abstraction period from October 1 to 31, 2026, to supplement agricultural storage reservoirs. The UK Government also plans to provide up to £15 million in agricultural water resource management grants to support farms in building new storage reservoirs. The Environment Agency plans to publish an updated irrigation outlook report by the end of February 2027 to reassess the risk of spring agricultural abstraction restrictions.