On August 1, Kabardino-Balkarian State University (KBSU) reported to TASS that expert assessment during the design of mountain and recreational facilities helps prevent destruction from mudflows, as occurred in the high-mountain city of Tyrnyauz.
Natalia Kondratyeva, Doctor of Geographical Sciences, Professor at the Department of Biology and other disciplines of the Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences at KBSU, and Acting Head of the Glaciology Laboratory at the High-Mountain Geophysical Institute, emphasized that expert assessment is essential when designing mountain and recreational projects to avoid mudflow damage. Mandatory involvement of mudflow specialists at the design stage can significantly reduce potential harm.
The mudflow that struck Tyrnyauz was triggered by glacier melt and resulted from prolonged high temperatures and heavy rainfall from July 22 to 31. According to experts, the presence of mudflow channels greatly reduces the risk of severe consequences from such events.
Kondratyeva added that after every mudflow, it is necessary to clear mudflow channels, repair them if needed, and improve the design based on actual conditions. The Baksan River basin records the highest number of mudflow events and is particularly dangerous. The Gerhozhansu River is the most powerful and active mudflow basin in Kabardino-Balkaria and throughout the entire North Caucasus, with mudflow volumes estimated at up to 6 million cubic meters.
She also noted that mudflow activity in the high-mountain areas of Kabardino-Balkaria typically occurs from April to October, and in the low-mountain areas from March to November. Individual mudflows can also occur in winter (December to February) due to thawing, snowmelt, and rainfall. The peak mudflow season is from May to September, with July and August being the most dangerous due to intense summer rainfall and massive melting of high-mountain snow and ice.
However, determining the exact timing or periods of increased mudflow activity remains a difficult task for researchers. The numerous factors influencing mudflow development make reliable forecasting challenging, and most existing mudflow prediction methods are still in the experimental testing and implementation stage.
