Postdoctoral researcher Şahin Akın and his research team at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) have published a study on resource use in the housing sector in West Asia and North Africa (WNA) in the journal Sustainable Cities and Society. The study points out that over the next 25 years, through the adoption of comprehensive strategies, greenhouse gas emissions in the region are expected to be reduced by up to 56%.
The research team investigated the resource efficiency of nearly 1,000 different types of housing across 19 countries in West Asia and North Africa, covering detached houses, multi-family houses, high-rise/apartment buildings, and informal housing. These regions have significant economic differences and are strongly affected by climate change. Residential buildings account for 21% of global energy consumption, and the materials used to build houses account for 30% of the total carbon footprint of global material production.
Akın paid special attention to the characteristics of different housing types and developed a dynamic stock model using data from these housing prototypes. The model evaluated 10 future scenarios, involving six individual strategies and four combined strategies, including optimization in materials, energy, fuel, and energy preferences.
The research results show that comprehensive strategies can reduce operational emissions by 60% and material-related emissions by 47%. By 2050, total greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced by 56%. This result was unexpected by the research team, especially considering population growth and increasing housing demand.
Akın pointed out that building methods in West Asia and North Africa have been improved over generations, using local materials and solutions adapted to climatic and economic conditions. However, with economic growth, especially in Gulf countries, building styles and lifestyles have changed, leading to a significant increase in energy consumption. The increased use of concrete and the popularity of air conditioning have become the main reasons for the increase in emissions.
To address these challenges, the research team tested a variety of resource efficiency scenarios, including painting all new buildings with reflective white paint, using heat pumps and controlling lighting, adopting environmentally friendly concrete, and reducing per capita housing area. The impact of each combination on energy consumption, material use, and greenhouse gas emissions varies by type and country, but the combined scenarios show the best emission reduction effect.
Akın emphasized that although this is only an exercise based on models representing housing types in the region, informed choices can be made once the relevant knowledge is mastered. He called on local experts to develop solutions based on specific building conditions and stressed the importance of local people's participation at all levels.
In addition, Akın also believes that artificial intelligence will become a powerful tool for such plans in the future. He was surprised by the scale of emission reductions that could be achieved in the actual results of the model and said: "Honestly, I didn't expect it to be like this. Because the population is growing, there will be many new houses. But in our scenarios, the emission reductions are already quite good."
