Wedoany.com Report-Oct 31 , Global solar module manufacturing capacity is set to exceed 1.5 TW by 2035, according to forecasts from the IEA. Its latest report, “Energy Technology Perspectives 2024,” covers the production of solar, wind turbines, electric cars, batteries, electrolyzers, and heat pumps.

The report uses scenarios like the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), which reflects the current policy landscape, and the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), which assumes governments meet their climate targets, to project the potential growth of these technologies.

The IEA said global solar module manufacturing capacity could reach 1,546 GW by 2035 under STEPS, with capacity rising to 1,695 GW under APS. In 2023, global capacity stood at 1,115 GW.

China is projected to maintain a lead in solar production, but its market share may drop slightly as projects and policies in other regions drive manufacturing expansion, said the IEA.

US solar module manufacturing capacity is expected to reach 90 GW by 2030 under STEPS, increasing to slightly over 100 GW under APS. The IEA said US demand for solar modules and polysilicon will be met almost entirely by domestic production by 2035, while demand for solar cells and wafers will still rely on imports.

The IEA said Indian solar module manufacturing capacity could reach about 80 GW under STEPS, rising to around 120 GW under APS. In the European Union, the APS scenario would support a goal of meeting 40% of demand through domestic production.

In the long term, differences in cost fundamentals across the global manufacturing market are likely to become increasingly important, the report says. The IEA said this could give a strong competitive edge to regions with low energy prices, including China, India, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East.

The report forecasts that global demand for solar modules will grow from 460 GW in 2023 to 674 GW in 2035, at an average growth rate of 3% per year, to 724 GW in 2050 under STEPS. Under APS, global solar module demand is expected to reach 860 GW by 2035 and 894 GW by 2050.