Brazil Announces 2036 Energy Expansion Plan with Estimated Investment of 3.3 Trillion Reais

en.Wedoany.com Reported - On October 8, Brazil's Ministry of Mines and Energy and the Energy Research Company released the summary report of the Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan 2036 (PDE 2036), estimating total investment in national energy supply and infrastructure expansion and modernization from 2027 to 2036 at approximately 3.3 trillion reais. Under the plan's reference scenario, Brazil's crude oil production is projected to reach 4.9 million barrels per day by 2036, with net natural gas production reaching 135 million cubic meters per day. The plan is currently in the public consultation phase, with a deadline for submitting comments of November 6.

In the oil and gas sector, PDE 2036 projects that Brazil will remain a net exporter of crude oil through the end of the planning period, with net natural gas production increasing by approximately 85% compared to 2026. Although crude oil production and refining capacity are expected to continue expanding, Brazil will still be a net importer of petroleum products by then, with import dependence on diesel projected to remain at around 25%.

In terms of electricity supply, the plan projects that national electricity consumption will grow at an average annual rate of 3.4%, reaching 979 terawatt-hours by 2036, while electricity generation will increase from 829 terawatt-hours in 2026 to 1,133 terawatt-hours. The growth in electricity demand includes new loads from transport electrification, industrial production electrification, and data centers. Among these, annual electricity consumption by data centers is projected to increase from 3 terawatt-hours in 2026 to 30 terawatt-hours in 2036.

In terms of renewable energy, the share of renewable energy in Brazil's energy mix is projected to rise from 50.2% in 2026 to 51.2% in 2036, while the share of renewable energy in the electricity mix is expected to remain at around 90%. The combined share of solar and wind power generation is projected to increase from 28.1% to approximately one-third.

In terms of energy storage and grid construction, PDE 2036 proposes a projected deployment scale of 7.2 gigawatts of battery energy storage systems, 4 gigawatts of demand response resources, and 2 gigawatts of pumped-storage hydropower plants. Pumped-storage hydropower is included in the plan's indicative expansion scheme for the first time. From 2026 to 2036, Brazil is expected to add 31,900 kilometers of transmission lines and 99.6 million kilovolt-amperes of substation capacity to accommodate the integration of new generation facilities and electricity loads.

In terms of biofuels, Brazil's annual ethanol production is projected to increase from 41.3 billion liters in 2026 to 52.7 billion liters in 2036, while annual biodiesel production is projected to rise from 10.6 billion liters to 14.8 billion liters. Sustainable aviation fuel, green diesel, and biomethane are also included in the future fuel supply projections.

This round of public consultation is numbered MME No. 235 and was launched pursuant to Ministerial Normative Ordinance No. 3246 issued on October 7, 2026. The Energy Research Company plans to subsequently release 10 thematic research reports covering energy demand, oil and gas production, refining and supply infrastructure, natural gas, biofuels, power generation, transmission, and other areas. Consultation comments will undergo technical assessment by Brazil's Ministry of Mines and Energy and the Energy Research Company and will be used in the preparation of subsequent official versions.