en.Wedoany.com Reported - Savills predicts that new home construction in England will fall more than 660,000 units short of the government's target over the next five years. The company estimates that the average annual number of new home completions in England will be 167,500 units by 2029/30, far below the government's target of 300,000 units per year. The total number of new homes built over the five-year period is expected to be 837,500 units, resulting in a shortfall of 662,500 units compared to the target.
Latest data shows that in the year to March 2025, new home completions in England fell by 4.1% year-on-year to 190,602 units. In the two years since the Help to Buy scheme ended, completions have fallen by a cumulative 10.2%, reflecting the impact of reduced government support on housing delivery. Savills expects the number of homes built to decline further in the coming years, with completions falling to just over 150,000 units in 2026/27 and 2027/28, before potentially recovering.
Emily Williams, Director of Residential Research at Savills, stated that housing delivery in England has shown some resilience in the face of recent economic headwinds, but the underlying situation is becoming increasingly challenging. She noted that planning permissions and starts are at low levels, leading to a thinning pipeline of homes under construction, while affordability pressures, rising interest rates, and escalating development costs are constraining demand and project viability. These challenges reflect broader issues affecting the property market, including concerns over transparency in real estate agencies and market confidence.
Williams suggested that introducing a support scheme targeting first-time buyers could significantly boost housing delivery rates. Under this scenario, annual completions could rise to 198,000 units by 2028/29, maintaining the average construction pace of the past decade despite current headwinds, but still falling short of the government's 300,000-unit target. The UK government has recently launched a consultation on a new First-Time Buyer Individual Savings Account (ISA) to replace the Lifetime ISA, which could provide additional support for first-time buyers and small developers entering the market.
This projected shortfall has raised concerns about housing supply constraints and their potential impact on house prices and affordability in England. With planning approvals continuing to be restricted and construction costs remaining high, the gap between housing targets and actual delivery is expected to widen further in the short term.
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