International gold prices fall below $4,000, down nearly 30% from the year's high

en.Wedoany.com Reported - On July 1, 2026, driven by factors such as increased uncertainty in US-Iran negotiations and heightened market expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike this year, US Treasury yields rose across the board and the US dollar index climbed, putting downward pressure on precious metal prices. International gold prices fell below the key $4,000 per ounce threshold during intraday trading. As of 15:05 Beijing time on July 1, gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) were priced at $3,979.80 per ounce, down 1.47% for the day and nearly 30% below the year's peak.

Since the start of 2026, international gold prices rose and then fell. At the beginning of the year, the main contract gold futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange continued the upward momentum from late 2025, hitting an all-time high of $5,626.8 per ounce during intraday trading on January 29. The cumulative increase in January and February exceeded 20%. With the outbreak of a new round of conflict in the Middle East at the end of February, international oil prices rose, sparking global inflation concerns, and gold prices fluctuated downward, accelerating their decline since June. On June 24, international gold prices fell below the $4,000 mark for the first time during intraday trading this year, briefly touching $3,975.7 per ounce.

Multiple international institutions have indicated that this round of gold price correction is the result of multiple factors, including heightened tightening expectations in Western economies and fund outflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs). As a non-yielding asset, gold prices are typically highly sensitive to US Treasury yields and monetary policy, with rising interest rates directly increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. Since June, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan have both announced interest rate hikes. Analysts point out that these moves have dampened bullish sentiment in the precious metals market, putting pressure on gold prices. Additionally, weak demand for gold ETFs and the artificial intelligence industry's siphoning effect on capital have also contributed to the softening of gold prices. Some analysts note that the AI industry's boom has consistently exceeded expectations, with tech giants' capital expenditures and profit growth impressive, attracting significant capital flows to equity markets and reducing gold's appeal in asset allocation.

Institutions are divided on the future trajectory of gold prices. UBS stated in a recent research report that it expects international gold prices to rebound to around $5,200 per ounce over the next 12 months. The World Gold Council's "2026 Global Gold Market Mid-Year Outlook" report noted that the market expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at least once in 2026. If there are no major changes in the macroeconomic environment, gold prices are expected to trade around $4,100 per ounce for the remainder of the year, with a fluctuation range of approximately ±5%. A research report from CICC argued that gold may have already overpriced the expectation of interest rate hikes, with the current gold price of around $4,000 per ounce fully pricing in room for three to four rate hikes.

An Kai, CEO of the Americas and Global Head of Research at the World Gold Council, stated that gold will continue to act as a barometer of the global macroeconomy, with its price trends synchronously reflecting global inflation expectations, monetary policy shifts, and fluctuations in market risk appetite. Structural demand from global central banks, institutional investors, and consumers is the fundamental basis supporting gold's resilience.