en.Wedoany.com Reported - The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) forecasts that global cotton trade will increase from 9.4 million tons to approximately 10.3 million tons between 2025/26 and 2028/29. Despite intensifying supply-side challenges and persistent geopolitical uncertainties, the ICAC assesses that the interplay between production, consumption, and stocks will dominate the future trajectory of cotton trade.
The ICAC projects that global cotton production will decline by 2% to 25.8 million tons in 2026/27, while consumption will remain stable at around 25.5 million tons. As the supply-demand gap continues to narrow, exporters' inventories will become increasingly critical in meeting international demand.
Parkhi Vats, the ICAC's chief statistician and author of the report, stated: "Global cotton trade is entering a period where supply constraints, stock levels, policy decisions, and consumption trends are playing an increasingly important role. Although production challenges and geopolitical uncertainties remain significant, the medium-term outlook suggests that trade will continue to grow as markets respond to stable consumption and evolving sourcing relationships."
By major region, Brazil is expected to maintain its position as the world's largest exporter of lint cotton in 2025/26, driven by strong harvests, competitive prices, and expanded global market access. Brazil will retain this position even as reduced U.S. supplies prompt buyers to turn to other regions.
U.S. cotton exports declined in 2025/26 but are expected to rebound by 3% in 2026/27, supported by higher ending stocks and a gradual market recovery. China, the world's largest cotton consumer, is expected to significantly increase imports in 2025/26 as its demand recovers from a previous downturn. Continued growth in China's textile and apparel output could drive additional imports, further boosting global trade.
Bangladesh remains a major importer, although its consumption and imports have been impacted by economic and energy challenges. Vietnam's importance as a major importer continues to rise, underpinned by its thriving textile industry and evolving trade partnerships. India's cotton trade landscape is meanwhile evolving, driven by new policy measures and growing domestic consumption.
The ICAC also noted that tariff policy changes, new trade agreements, high energy costs, and logistical disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz—a critical shipping lane for global cotton transport—are key risk factors clouding the trade outlook.
According to the report, as global production and consumption move closer into balance, any unforeseen surge in demand could force major exporters to draw down inventories to a greater extent. This "tight balance" makes international pricing and strategic sourcing decisions more delicate than ever before.
