Czarnikow Forecasts 2.9 Million Tonne Global Sugar Deficit for 2027/28

en.Wedoany.com Reported - Sugar analytics firm Czarnikow's latest forecast shows a global sugar deficit of 2.9 million metric tonnes in 2027/28, compared to an estimated deficit of 0.9 million metric tonnes in 2026/27. The company has widened its 2026/27 global sugar deficit estimate from a previous 0.6 million metric tonnes to 0.9 million metric tonnes, with Brazil's production forecast revised down to 38.6 million metric tonnes, an adjustment that outweighs the impact of upward revisions to production forecasts for China, Pakistan, Indonesia, and the United States.

In its August forecast, Czarnikow stated that the 2027/28 global sugar deficit is primarily driven by reduced supplies of sugarcane and sugar beet, with production expected to decline in India, Thailand, and the European Union. Global sugar production for that year is projected at 177 million metric tonnes, with consumption estimated at 179.9 million metric tonnes.

By region, India's sugar production in 2027/28 is expected to fall to between 26 million and 27 million metric tonnes, as unfavorable monsoon conditions could lead to reduced sugarcane planting areas in parts of Maharashtra and Karnataka. For 2026/27 (starting in October), India's production is estimated at 28.4 million metric tonnes, but Czarnikow noted that actual output could be higher if rising domestic sugar prices curb ethanol demand.

The European Union's sugar production in 2027/28 is expected to decline to 13.2 million metric tonnes from 13.9 million metric tonnes in 2026/27, as sustained pressure on producers and processors may prompt further reductions in sugar beet planting areas. Extreme heat and drought pose downside risks to these forecasts.

Thailand's sugar production in 2027/28 is projected at 9.3 million metric tonnes, with sugarcane crushing volumes reduced due to competition for farmland with cassava.