Brazil's Conab Raises 2026/27 Ethanol Production Forecast to 41.88 Billion Liters

en.Wedoany.com Reported - Brazil's National Supply Company (Conab) raised its forecast for Brazil's ethanol production in the 2026/27 crop year to 41.88 billion liters this Thursday (20th), expecting growth in both sugarcane ethanol and corn ethanol output, while further cutting its sugar production estimate.

Conab's new forecast is more than 1 billion liters above the record level announced at the end of April, with sugarcane ethanol contributing approximately 700 million liters of the increase and corn ethanol adding nearly 500 million liters. The agency stated that total ethanol production is expected to grow 11.7% compared with the previous crop cycle, driven by the market's preference for ethanol over sugar—reflected in the allocation of sugarcane—as well as the continued expansion of the corn industry.

By type, sugarcane ethanol production is expected to reach 29.98 billion liters, up 9.7% year on year, while corn ethanol production is forecast to grow 17% to 11.91 billion liters.

On the sugar side, Conab lowered its 2026/27 sugarcane production forecast to 705.2 million tons from the previous 709.1 million tons. Despite this, national sugarcane output will still be 4.7% higher than the previous season, reflecting both an increase in harvested area and higher average national productivity. However, compared with the April forecast, the downward revision in sugarcane output has reduced the sugar production estimate to 42.9 million tons, down from the previously projected 43.95 million tons, representing a 2.9% decrease from the previous season.