OPEC Cuts 2026 Global Oil Demand Growth Forecast for the Fifth Time

en.Wedoany.com Reported - On September 10, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 380,000 barrels per day in its latest monthly oil market report, down from the 580,000 barrels per day projected in its August report—a single-month reduction of 200,000 barrels per day. This marks OPEC's fifth consecutive monthly downward revision to its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast.

In June, OPEC still expected global oil demand in 2026 to grow by about 970,000 barrels per day year-on-year, with total global demand at approximately 106.13 million barrels per day; by August, the demand growth forecast had been lowered to 580,000 barrels per day. The September report further reduced the growth rate to 380,000 barrels per day, a decrease of about 590,000 barrels per day compared with the June forecast.

In terms of regional structure, OPEC's latest forecast shows that oil demand from OECD economies will decrease by about 110,000 barrels per day year-on-year in 2026, while demand from non-OECD economies is expected to increase by about 490,000 barrels per day. The net increase in global demand in 2026 will mainly come from non-OECD markets.

OPEC also raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2027, from about 2.16 million barrels per day to about 2.36 million barrels per day. Among this, demand from non-OECD economies is expected to increase by about 1.92 million barrels per day, while OECD economies are expected to add about 430,000 barrels per day.

On the supply side, OPEC's September report estimates that liquids supply from outside the Declaration of Cooperation participants will increase by about 600,000 barrels per day in 2026, with Brazil, the United States, Canada and Argentina as the main sources of incremental supply; in 2027, this supply is expected to continue increasing by about 600,000 barrels per day.

OPEC's reported crude oil production from member countries rose from about 23.73 million barrels per day in July to about 24.08 million barrels per day in August. Meanwhile, the seven major OPEC+ oil-producing countries decided on September 6 to continue implementing the required production level for September in October 2026, without further raising the October production target; the next meeting is scheduled for October 4.