Wedoany.com Report on Mar 13th, In early trading, the SHFE 2603 copper contract showed a wide-ranging volatile downtrend. It opened at 100,450 yuan/ton, then fluctuated between 100,320 yuan/ton and 100,620 yuan/ton, closing at 100,230 yuan/ton. The monthly Contango spread ranged between 300 yuan/ton and 230 yuan/ton, while the import margin for the SHFE copper nearby contract remained in negative territory, with losses ranging from 130 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton.

Intraday data showed the Shanghai Cathode Copper Sales Sentiment Index at 2.87, down 0.07 from the previous day, and the Purchasing Sentiment Index at 2.68, down 0.03. In early trading, suppliers quoted premiums of 50-100 yuan/ton for standard quality copper. Brands like HMG-B and JCC were quoted at premiums of 80-100 yuan/ton, while brands such as Jinchuan isa, Zhongjin, Zhongtiaoshan, Tiefeng, Jinfeng, and Yuguang were quoted at premiums of 50-70 yuan/ton. High-quality copper like Guixi and Jinchuan (plate) was quoted at premiums of 130-150 yuan/ton. Registered SX-EW copper was scarce, with only Myanmar-origin material circulating, and its price remained firm at a premium of 20 yuan/ton. Non-registered copper was quoted at discounts of 30-20 yuan/ton. Entering the second trading session, downstream purchasing momentum declined, and some suppliers lowered prices. Tiefeng traded at premiums of 30-40 yuan/ton, while brands like Jinguan, Jinxin, Tongguan, and Jinfeng traded at premiums of 60-100 yuan/ton. Some suppliers had already begun attempting to quote for the 04 contract.

Looking ahead to next week, next Monday will be the last trading day for the SHFE 2603 copper contract. Based on SMM's price assessment methodology for #1 Cathode Copper, the nearby contract serves as the pricing benchmark. The monthly Contango spread has narrowed slightly, weakening suppliers' willingness to deliver to exchange warehouses and marginally loosening support for spot premiums. Simultaneously, import losses have significantly narrowed, showing signs that the import window may open. If it opens, it would increase the supply of foreign-origin material, adding pressure to domestic spot supply and potentially limiting premiums. On the demand side, downstream buyers continue to purchase as needed, providing price support, but some companies have limited acceptance for high-premium spot copper, turning more cautious in their procurement. On the supply side, domestic copper and previously price-locked imported cargoes continue to arrive, and social inventories remain high. Since SMM always uses the nearby contract as the pricing benchmark, spot premiums are expected to remain high relative to the nearby contract, but are anticipated to be corrected during the second trading day. Overall, driven by delivery-related factors, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to remain high next Monday.