en.Wedoany.com Reported - From January to May, China's steel import and export growth continued to decline year-on-year. China exported 44.554 million tons of steel during this period, down 8.1% year-on-year; imported 2.255 million tons, down 12.2% year-on-year. In May alone, China exported 10.341 million tons of steel, down 2.2% year-on-year; imported 451,000 tons, down 6.2% year-on-year.
China's steel exports are characterized by overall pressure, structural improvement, and gradual month-on-month recovery. Wang Guoqing, director of the Lange Steel Research Center, analyzed that the high base in 2025, tightening export policies, intensified global trade frictions, and weak overall overseas demand are the core reasons for the weakening exports. Subsequently, driven by favorable factors such as seasonal demand recovery in overseas markets, supply shortages in some regions due to geopolitical conflicts, and the resilience of China's overall steel competitiveness and high-end product exports, China's steel exports may show month-on-month improvement. Wang Guoqing predicts that in June, China's steel exports will show slight month-on-month fluctuations and a modest year-on-year recovery.
Recently, export quotations for steel products at home and abroad have simultaneously declined slightly. There remains a significant price gap between Chinese products and overseas competitors, with the price advantage supporting future exports. Data from the Lange Steel Research Center shows that as of June 8, China's FOB export quotation for hot-rolled coils was $502 per ton, lower than Japan ($570/ton), Turkey ($645/ton), and India ($538/ton).
There are also positive factors on the supply side. Data from the World Steel Association shows that in April, crude steel production in 69 countries included in the statistics was 153.4 million tons, down 1.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.3 percentage points from the previous month. Excluding China, crude steel production in other global regions was 69.8 million tons, with growth turning from a decline to an increase of 0.1% year-on-year, though the overall recovery momentum remains weak. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have hindered exports from traditional steel-supplying countries like Iran, creating opportunities for China's steel exports.
External demand expansion momentum remains insufficient. In May, the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI stood at 52.6%, remaining in expansion territory for 10 consecutive months. Wang Guoqing stated that the current global market is characterized by supply outpacing demand and intensified regional divergence. Coupled with rising costs and demand being overdrawn by earlier stockpiling, the pace of manufacturing expansion may slow. In May, China's manufacturing new export orders index was 48.6%, falling back into contraction territory, indicating a weakening in overseas manufacturing order demand.
In May, the steel industry's new export orders index showed divergence, but all remained below the boom-bust line, with weak overseas demand still the main theme. Among them, the new export orders index for steel enterprises from the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing's Steel Logistics Committee was 48.6%, up 2.1 percentage points month-on-month; the new export orders index for steel circulation enterprises from the China Association of Metal and Steel and Lange Steel Network was 48.1%, down 1.7 percentage points month-on-month.
Frequent trade frictions are also hindering China's steel exports. Since May, South Korea, Ukraine, Japan, and the European Union have successively launched trade remedy investigations involving Chinese steel. Previously imposed high tariffs are also limiting the export scale of corresponding categories. Market access thresholds in Europe continue to rise. The implementation of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, coupled with carbon certificate procurement costs, has significantly increased the cost of steel exports. The UK will implement new steel import control policies in July, which will substantially reduce tariff-free quotas and increase excess tariffs, squeezing China's steel export space.
Wang Guoqing pointed out that while the global manufacturing sector is generally maintaining an expansionary trend, the pace of recovery is slowing, and the foundation of overseas market recovery is not solid. From a data base perspective, China's steel exports in June 2025 were 9.68 million tons, a relatively low base for the period. Supported by the low base effect, the year-on-year growth rate of steel exports in June 2026 is expected to achieve a modest recovery. Looking at the long-term trend, the room for a significant rebound in China's steel exports is limited. The continuous rise of global trade protectionism, coupled with repeated disruptions from geopolitical risks, are core factors constraining the growth of China's steel exports. Under multiple external pressures and a weak external demand foundation, it will be difficult for China's steel exports to achieve a sustained and substantial recovery in the future.
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