en.Wedoany.com Reported - BHP has raised its total investment estimate for the Jansen potash project Stage 2 in Canada from $4.9 billion to $6.9 billion, and expects first production from this stage to be delayed to the end of fiscal year 2031, two years later than originally planned.

The Jansen Stage 2 project was approved in October 2023, with BHP's initial investment cost estimate at $4.9 billion. In August 2025, the company announced a two-year extension to the project timeline, pushing expected first production to fiscal year 2031. This revised investment figure follows a comprehensive review conducted during the deferral period, which considered project delivery, costs, and schedule. BHP attributed most of the increase to additional construction labor hours, higher material quantities, and cost escalation identified during this process. The company confirmed it will provide an updated capital expenditure estimate in the second half of fiscal year 2026.

As of the end of May 2026, the Jansen Stage 2 project reported 16% progress and 83% design completion. BHP stated this reduces the risk associated with the remaining work.

BHP continues to forecast an annual production capacity of approximately 4.36 million tonnes for Jansen Stage 2. With a planned two-year ramp-up period, the company expects total production from the Jansen mine to reach 8.5 million tonnes per year, representing approximately 10% of global potash production. Based on consensus potash prices, the updated internal rate of return for the Jansen Stage 2 project is 11%, with an estimated payback period of 8 years. The company reported that it expects EBITDA margins to remain above 65%.

BHP stated that once Stage 2 reaches full production, the Jansen mine will become the lowest unit cost potash mine in Canada, with costs of $114–130 per tonne, the same range as estimated at project approval. Given the expected increase in capital intensity for the Jansen project, the company said it now expects to recognize a pre-tax and post-tax impairment charge of approximately $2.3 billion in its fiscal 2026 financial results, related to the project investment to date.

The Jansen Stage 1 project remains on track for first production in mid-calendar year 2027, consistent with the cost and schedule update from January 2026. BHP does not expect to change its group capital expenditure guidance for fiscal year 2027, which remains at approximately $11 billion.

Brandon Craig, President of BHP Americas and CEO-elect, stated that BHP continues to invest in its long-term growth strategy, and Jansen is a key pillar of that strategy, providing exposure to a future-facing commodity with strong demand fundamentals and portfolio diversification benefits.

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