en.Wedoany.com Reported - S&P Global released a research report in June 2026, titled "Copper in the AI Era: The Challenge of Electrification," which points out that driven by the dual forces of accelerated electrification and the expansion of artificial intelligence technology, the global copper market is facing a growing supply-demand imbalance. The study predicts that by 2040, global copper demand will reach 42 million metric tons, a 50% increase from current levels, while the supply gap during the same period could be as high as 10 million metric tons, accounting for approximately 25% of expected demand. Daniel Yergin, Vice Chairman of S&P Global, stated that copper is the great enabler of electrification, but the accelerating pace of electrification is increasingly becoming a challenge for copper.
Copper demand growth is driven by multiple key industries. Traditional economic uses—including construction, appliances, transportation, and power generation—are expected to reach 23 million metric tons by 2040, accounting for 53% of total demand. Energy transition and electrification represent the fastest-growing source of copper demand, encompassing electric vehicles, battery storage, renewable energy installations, grid infrastructure, and electrification in emerging markets. This segment is projected to grow by over 7 million metric tons by 2040, reaching 15.7 million metric tons. These two categories alone are expected to push total demand 7 million metric tons above available supply.
Emerging demand drivers are adding further pressure to an already strained supply situation. Artificial intelligence and data centers are expected to have a total installed capacity of approximately 550 gigawatts by 2040, more than five times the level in 2022. Against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical tensions, global defense spending could double to $6 trillion. Combined, demand from AI, data centers, and defense is expected to roughly triple, adding a total of 4 million metric tons of new copper demand. The study also identifies a fifth potential source of demand—humanoid robots—predicting that 1 billion humanoid robots in operation by 2040 would require approximately 1.6 million metric tons of copper annually, equivalent to about 6% of current demand.
Despite the strong demand outlook, global copper production is expected to peak at 33 million metric tons in 2030 and then gradually decline. Even if recycled copper supply increases from the current 4 million metric tons to 10 million metric tons by 2040, a deficit is still anticipated. Developing new supply faces significant challenges: mining operations contend with declining ore grades, rising costs, increasingly complex extraction conditions, environmental opposition, and lengthy regulatory approval processes. On average, it takes 17 years from the discovery of a new copper mine to its commissioning. Eleonor Kramarz, Global Head of Critical Minerals and Energy Transition Consulting at S&P Global Commodity Insights, stated that bridging the impending supply gap depends not only on geology, engineering, logistics, and investment but also on governance and policy.
The release of this report highlights the severity of the global copper supply-demand contradiction, providing an important reference for governments and mining companies in formulating long-term resource strategies.
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