en.Wedoany.com Reported - Canada's construction starts experienced a significant decline in early 2026, with data through April showing total starts down nearly 40% year-over-year, primarily dragged down by sluggish non-residential and civil engineering activity. The outlook for the full year offers little relief, with total starts expected to fall 16.3% from 2025.

This weakness reflects a softening macroeconomic backdrop. U.S. tariffs, trade uncertainty, population decline, and global energy shocks have all dampened current and future economic momentum.

However, not all markets are moving in the same direction. Ontario, which accounted for over 40% of Canada's construction market in 2025, has a significant impact on the national outlook due to its pullback. But excluding Ontario, the construction industry is expected to expand in 2026, although the total dollar volume in the remaining regions is much smaller.

Some provinces are bucking the overall downturn. Alberta and British Columbia are leading the way, with starts expected to grow by 7.1% and 12.2%, respectively. Strong civil engineering forecasts underpin both provinces, driven by government initiatives for roads, power infrastructure, and other large-scale projects. Quebec will also see growth at 6.9%, with its healthcare, commercial, and industrial building forecasts keeping the province in positive territory. Two smaller provinces are showing even more pronounced growth: Saskatchewan and Manitoba are expected to grow by 130.7% and 22.2%, respectively, though these extraordinary figures require contextual explanation, as spending in smaller markets is more volatile and less stable.

The downward figures for Canada's total construction starts mask a more nuanced reality. Ontario accounts for the majority of the projected decline, while multiple regions have considerable growth potential. For construction companies, the path forward lies in identifying and targeting these high-growth markets, where opportunities remain even as the national picture weakens. Devin Bell is a Deputy Economist at ConstructConnect.

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