Russia Lowers 2026 Natural Gas Production and LNG Export Forecasts

en.Wedoany.com Reported - On September 23, a draft government forecast document from Russia's Ministry of Economic Development showed that Russia has lowered its 2026 natural gas production and some export forecasts. Among them, full-year natural gas production is expected to be 683.1 billion cubic meters, a decrease of 5.3 billion cubic meters from the 688.4 billion cubic meters forecast in May this year, but still higher than 662.7 billion cubic meters in 2025. The relevant forecast data will be used to update Russia's federal budget parameters through 2029.

Russia's liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports in 2026 are expected to be 35 million tons, down 5.3 million tons from the previous forecast of 40.3 million tons, and higher than 30.3 million tons in 2025. The latest forecast also lowers LNG export volumes for subsequent years: 39.5 million tons are expected in 2027, compared with the previous forecast of 46.9 million tons; 50.1 million tons in 2028, compared with 58.4 million tons previously; and 64.5 million tons in 2029, compared with 66.2 million tons previously.

Pipeline natural gas export forecasts show different changes. Russia's pipeline gas exports in 2026 are expected to be 117.5 billion cubic meters, higher than the 115.5 billion cubic meters forecast in May; forecasts for 2027 to 2029 have been adjusted to 120.5 billion, 115 billion, and 119.5 billion cubic meters respectively, compared with the previous corresponding forecasts of 125.5 billion, 125 billion, and 127.5 billion cubic meters. Pipeline gas exports to markets outside the former Soviet region are expected to reach 77 billion cubic meters in 2026, and 77.5 billion, 72 billion, and 76.5 billion cubic meters respectively from 2027 to 2029.

Production forecasts have also been lowered across the medium-term range. Russia's Ministry of Economic Development now expects natural gas production to be 696.1 billion cubic meters in 2027, 710.5 billion cubic meters in 2028, and 740.1 billion cubic meters in 2029; the May forecasts were 711.3 billion, 731.9 billion, and 750.4 billion cubic meters respectively. In 2025, Russia's natural gas exports to Europe fell to about 18 billion cubic meters, down 44% year on year; in 2018 to 2019, Russia's pipeline natural gas exports to Europe were once about 180 billion cubic meters per year.