Research firm IDC forecasts that global smartphone shipments will decline by 12.9% year-over-year in 2026 due to a memory chip supply shortage, potentially marking the steepest drop in the industry's history. The memory crisis is primarily driven by AI giants hoarding inventory for data center projects, exacerbating the supply crunch.

Nabila Popal, an analyst at IDC, warned: "This is the biggest drop ever caused by the ongoing memory crisis—it will hit the industry like a tsunami and reshape it significantly." Although global smartphone shipments are still projected to reach 1.12 billion units, the memory shortage has driven up prices, particularly RAM costs, leading to higher prices for Android devices and fewer budget models, which could dampen consumer demand. IDC data shows that the average selling price of smartphones will rise by 14% this year, hitting a record high of $523.

Popal added: "We expect to see consolidation in the industry as smaller players exit, while low-end manufacturers will face a sharp decline in shipments due to supply constraints and reduced demand amid high prices." The impact of the memory crisis varies globally, with the Middle East and Africa region expected to see a 20.6% year-over-year decline, while the Chinese market is projected to drop by about 10.5%, as these regions have a higher prevalence of low-end Android devices.

The memory crisis may reshape the smartphone market landscape. Major manufacturers like Apple and Samsung, which can absorb cost pressures, are likely to benefit and further expand their market share, while smaller Android vendors will need to adjust their strategies. Samsung, as a key memory supplier, plays a dual role in this process. For 2027, IDC expects only modest growth of 1.9% in smartphone shipments, with a more pronounced recovery anticipated by 2028 as memory supply improves. However, even by 2030, shipments are expected to remain below the 2025 level of 1.26 billion units.

Another research firm, Gartner, has made similar predictions, forecasting an 8.4% decline in smartphone shipments in 2026 and a 10.4% drop in PC shipments this year. Ranjit Atwal, an analyst at Gartner, stated: "This is the sharpest contraction in device shipments in over a decade. Higher prices will narrow the range of available devices, encouraging buyers to hold onto their devices for longer and fundamentally altering upgrade cycles." He also noted that rising memory costs could lead to the disappearance of the sub-$500 entry-level PC segment by 2028. Overall, the memory crisis is profoundly reshaping the future trajectory of the smartphone and PC industries.