Wedoany.com Report on Feb 5th, benefiting from increased yields, Canada's wheat production (including durum wheat) in the 2025/26 marketing year may reach a record 39.96 million metric tons. This forecast represents an 11% increase compared to the previous year and is 23% higher than the average of the past five years. If achieved, it would surpass the historical record of 37.59 million tons set in the 2013/14 season.
The significant year-on-year production growth is primarily attributed to increased yields of Canada Western Red Spring wheat, followed by Canada Western Amber Durum wheat and winter wheat. Report data indicates that the overall wheat yield is expected to increase from 3.37 tons per hectare to 3.75 tons per hectare, while the planted area sees a modest 1% increase to 10.66 million hectares. Among the sub-categories, spring wheat production is forecast to grow by 10.3% to 29.3 million tons, durum wheat production is expected to increase by 11.8% to 7.1 million tons, and winter wheat production is projected to rise by 17% to 3.6 million tons.
Against the backdrop of a substantial 3.3 million ton upward revision in the production estimate, the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) has concurrently raised its forecast for Canadian wheat exports to 29.5 million tons, which accounts for 67% of its total domestic supply. For comparison, Canada exported 29.3 million tons of wheat in the previous marketing year. Over the past five years, Canada's wheat exports have consistently ranged between 53% and 71% of its total production, reflecting the distinctly export-oriented nature of its agricultural sector.
The report forecasts that Canada's domestic wheat consumption in the 2025/26 marketing year will reach 9.35 million tons, constituting 21% of the total supply. This figure is higher than the 8.4 million tons in 2024/25 and remains largely consistent with the average consumption level of the past three years. Amid the overall trend of record domestic production and strong export expectations, its domestic market demand has remained stable.
