en.Wedoany.com Reported - The OECD's "Inventory of Export Restrictions on Critical Raw Materials," released in April 2026, shows that between 2009 and 2024, export restriction measures on critical minerals by various countries increased approximately fivefold, with minerals related to batteries and the energy transition being the most significantly affected. Countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, Indonesia, and Zimbabwe have restricted raw material exports through quotas or bans, forcing buyers to secure supply through alternative channels at higher prices.
After the DRC implemented cobalt export restrictions in February 2025, benchmark cobalt prices surged by over 160%, and cobalt hydroxide prices doubled. Zimbabwe has banned the export of lithium concentrate since February 2026 to promote local processing. Indonesia, meanwhile, shortened the mining quota allocation period from three years to one year, reducing supply predictability, with nickel prices maintained in the range of $18,500 to $20,000 per tonne in early 2026. These policies have squeezed international trade supply volumes and pushed up the cost curve.
Sulfur prices have skyrocketed from a historical benchmark of $150 per tonne to over $1,000, increasing the production cost of nickel via the High Pressure Acid Leach (HPAL) process by $1,000 to $3,000 per tonne and raising the breakeven point for laterite nickel ores. Mark Selby, CEO of Canada Nickel Company, noted that Indonesian policy aims to maximize value rather than output. Sulfide ores hold a cost advantage as they do not require external sulfur purchases.
A March 2026 report by the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) estimates that by 2040, recycling could meet 24% to 68% of battery metal demand, but in the short term, supply gaps will still need to be filled by primary mining, with project development cycles lasting 10 to 18 years. Capital is concentrating on large-scale, low-cost projects in OECD jurisdictions, such as Sovereign Metals' Kasiya graphite project (post-tax net present value of $2.2 billion).
Vertically integrated companies like Energy Fuels, leveraging the only licensed facility in the U.S. for processing monazite, successfully issued $700 million in convertible notes with a 0.75% coupon, with demand oversubscribed sevenfold. The company's CEO stated that competing with China requires a complete industrial chain. Capital markets are increasingly favoring projects that align with allied supply chain policies and sit in the first quartile of the cost curve, while high-cost or fragmented projects face financing difficulties.
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