en.Wedoany.com Reported - The downward pressure on Brazil's fed cattle spot market continues, according to a market report released by consultancy Agrifatto. The firm noted that increased supply of slaughter-ready cattle, combined with deteriorating autumn pasture quality and weak domestic beef consumption in the second half of the month, has driven this scenario.
In the survey conducted on Thursday, May 21, arroba (@, the Brazilian live cattle pricing unit) quotes fell in 5 of the 17 markets tracked by Agrifatto, involving the states of AC, GO, MA, MG, and TO. Except for a price increase for fed cattle in Rondônia, arroba prices remained stable in other monitored regions. In the interior of São Paulo, non-export standard fed cattle were priced at R$345 per arroba, while "China cattle" meeting export standards for China traded at R$355 per arroba.
Data from Scot Consultoria also corroborates this market trend. In the São Paulo market, fed cattle for the domestic market were quoted at R$345 per arroba, cows at R$318 per arroba, heifers at R$330 per arroba, and "China cattle" at R$350 per arroba (gross price, forward payment). Scot analysts emphasized that cattle supply continues to meet current demand, while weak domestic meat sales keep the market under sustained pressure. The export business for young cattle slaughtered at no more than 30 months of age maintains a good pace, serving as a supporting factor.
Agrifatto predicts potential new negative adjustments in arroba prices in the coming days, at least until the end of May 2026. The consultancy points out that the market remains characterized by comfortable slaughter schedules, weak domestic consumption, and concentrated expectations regarding external demand developments. The national average slaughter schedule stands between 8 and 9 days, meaning Brazilian slaughterhouses are under no urgency to purchase fed cattle.
In contrast to the sluggish spot market, the fed cattle futures market remains firm. Agrifatto analysts explain that contract prices are supported by rumors that China may relax safeguard measures, with the market beginning to consider the possibility of Brazil utilizing import quotas left unfilled by other countries. This has improved sentiment in the export sector and provided support for futures trading. The spot market and futures market remain in a tug-of-war, pitting supply pressure and slowing consumption against expectations of improving external conditions.
Agrifatto, which closely monitors the Chinese market, highlighted a deep atmosphere of structural uncertainty at the SIAL Shanghai exhibition, which concluded on May 20. The main tactical divergence centers on the safe cutoff date for Brazilian exports. Although the speculative consensus suggests vessels should depart by the end of June 2026 to secure preferential tariffs, operators have adopted asymmetric risk strategies. Aggressive exporters support shipments in the second half of June, expecting 80% of the volume to enter the quota normally, with the remaining 20% diverted through gray channels; however, importers seeking to avoid regulatory risks have systematically rejected cargoes loaded after June 15. This week, Brazilian beef forequarter cuts destined for China were quoted between US$6,700/ton and US$6,800/ton, unchanged from the previous week.
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