en.Wedoany.com Reported - The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts a decline in U.S. cotton production for the 2026/27 season, with global inventories tightening as consumption grows, potentially further constricting supply patterns among major fiber-exporting countries.
Data released by the USDA on Thursday shows that U.S. cotton production for the 2026/27 season is estimated at 2.9 million tons, down about 4% from 3.03 million tons in the 2025/26 season. Although yields have slightly improved, actual harvested area has decreased due to a higher abandonment rate, leading to lower production.
Despite the production decline, U.S. exports are expected to grow to 2.68 million tons, driven by anticipated global demand growth. Ending stocks are projected to fall to 849,000 tons, down about 11% from the previous cycle.
The USDA also expects global cotton inventories to tighten. Global ending stocks for the 2026/27 season are estimated at 15.63 million tons, down 7% from the previous season. The report states that, excluding the U.S., the inventory decline is primarily driven by Brazil and Australia, both of which will draw on stocks to support exports amid lower production. Brazil is currently the world's largest cotton exporter. India and China will also reduce inventories to meet domestic consumption.
On the demand side, global consumption is estimated at 26.5 million tons, up 1% from the previous season. Growth is led by China, India, Bangladesh, Egypt, Pakistan, and Vietnam, which together account for a significant share of the global textile industry. Despite expanding consumption, international trade is expected to edge down to 9.45 million tons, mainly reflecting lower imports by India.
For Brazil, this commercial outlook may be seen as favorable. The USDA notes that Brazil is expanding its share of the international market and competing with the U.S. for global leadership in cotton exports. With global inventories tightening and demand growing, Brazil's supply is becoming more critical in meeting the needs of Asian buyers, particularly markets such as China, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Pakistan. The report also shows that Brazil's inventories will decline in the next season to support external shipments, a trend similar to that of the U.S. and Australia.
Regarding the 2025/26 season, the USDA made only a minor adjustment to U.S. production, revising it down to 3.03 million tons.
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