en.Wedoany.com Reported - Uruguay's 2025/2026 soybean harvest is in its final stages. Despite drought impacts, yields have unexpectedly risen, resulting in a better-than-expected overall harvest. Joaquín Basso, grain business manager at Cargill Uruguay, stated that harvest progress is approximately 95% to 98%, with current production around 1.9 million tons. It may be slightly higher, reaching 2 million tons would be a pleasant surprise.
Basso noted that due to the drought, this year's production has significantly declined compared to last year's 3.8 million tons. However, during the worst of the drought, actual performance was better than previously expected. As of the end of June, Uruguay has shipped approximately 850,000 to 900,000 tons of soybeans. The remaining 600,000 tons (excluding domestic consumption and seed retention for the next season) will be shipped between July, August, and September. The export pace largely depends on producers' willingness to sell. If sales accelerate, July and August shipments will increase accordingly; otherwise, they will be delayed to August or September. Basso expects shipments to become more active starting in August.
In terms of market prices, local soybeans are currently trading at $380 to $385 per ton, far below the $415 per ton reached in May, with a correction of nearly 120 points from the peak. Basso attributes this correction to investment funds closing long positions—these funds had maintained large long positions since the Middle East conflict and began reducing them due to signals of a potential resolution. He stated that wheat corrected first, followed by soybeans and rapeseed, which each dropped by $20 to $30.
Looking ahead, Basso mentioned the El Niño phenomenon as a supporting factor. Forecasts indicate a strong El Niño this year, which typically creates adverse conditions for major producing regions in the Southern Hemisphere. The market has not yet fully verified the impact of a theoretically strong El Niño year, but this remains to be seen.
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