en.Wedoany.com Reported - The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture noted in its latest forecast that the Philippines' 2026-27 rice production is facing multiple pressures, including rising input costs, declining water levels in major reservoirs, and weakening farmer planting intentions.

FAS lowered its rice production forecast for the current marketing year by 0.8% from the previous report to 12.3 million tons; even if achieved, this would represent an increase of only 100,000 tons from the 2025-26 season. Fertilizer prices have risen sharply since March, with urea prices in June up more than 55% year-on-year, eroding farmer profits and curbing expansion enthusiasm.

As of June, water levels in several major reservoir dams have declined significantly, adding production risks in key lowland growing areas. FAS stated that further forecast revisions cannot be ruled out as the effects of El Niño weather conditions continue to unfold over the coming months. The Philippine Department of Agriculture (DA) estimates that a severe El Niño could reduce rice production by 700,000 tons. Although the DA continues to provide farmers with fuel subsidies, partial seed, and fertilizer support, farmers report that these measures only partially offset high input costs.

Rice consumption for the 2026-27 season is expected to remain at 17.6 million tons, with demand driven by population growth still outweighing the dampening effect of rising retail prices, as rice remains the country's primary staple. To bridge the domestic supply gap, Philippine rice imports are expected to increase by 800,000 tons to 5.2 million tons; ending stocks may decline by about 150,000 tons to 2.65 million tons.

FAS also forecasts that corn production for 2026-27 will decline slightly to 8.1 million tons, facing similar weather and cost trends as the rice sector, down 2.2% from the previous forecast. Total consumption is expected to grow by 1.5% to 10.4 million tons, with demand from the feed industry (especially poultry, aquaculture, and pet food) continuing to drive corn usage and imports; imports are projected to reach 2.3 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons.

The Philippines does not produce wheat domestically. Wheat imports for 2026-27 are forecast at 7.2 million tons, up 2.9% from FAS's previous forecast but down 400,000 tons from the 2025-26 season.

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