en.Wedoany.com Reported - Despite a recent pullback in international aluminum prices, multiple institutions remain optimistic about India's two major aluminum giants, Hindalco Industries and Vedanta Aluminium, expecting their share prices to have an upside potential of about 20% over the next 9 to 12 months.
In terms of industry fundamentals, the market generally expects a global aluminum supply deficit of approximately 1.5 million tons in 2026. Previously, the Middle East accounted for about 8% of global aluminum production, and geopolitical conflicts had caused severe supply disruptions. London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum prices hit a high of $3,790 per ton earlier this month. However, amid expectations of US-Iran peace talks, aluminum prices have recently fallen about 17% from their peak. Market analysis suggests that if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes, aluminum supply from the Middle East could increase, potentially creating competitive pressure for India's aluminum industry.
At the corporate operational level, Vedanta Aluminium was demerged and listed independently on May 1, 2026. The company's aluminum production for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 (April to June 2026) was 632,000 tons, a 5% year-on-year increase, setting a new quarterly production record. Of this, the Jharsuguda plant contributed 464,000 tons, while the BALCO plant produced 168,000 tons, up 17% year-on-year. The company is steadily advancing capacity expansion at the BALCO plant, which is expected to reach full capacity utilization in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026. Additionally, Vedanta recently obtained environmental and forest clearance for the Sijmali bauxite block and secured mining approval for the Kuraloi (A) North block in June.
From an analyst perspective, Axis Securities analyst Aditya Welekar views Hindalco as a "buy on dips" target, noting the company's large-scale upstream expansion and setting a target price of 1,250 rupees. Analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities believe that Hindalco's integration of bauxite and coal mines will reduce its cost per ton by approximately $150. CLSA India has given Vedanta Aluminium an "outperform" rating, citing benefits from a "higher for longer" aluminum cycle and operational tailwinds. However, InCred Equities holds a bearish stance on the aluminum sector, warning of a potential 30% to 40% downside in share prices.
Hindalco Industries, the flagship company of the Aditya Birla Group, is one of the world's leading aluminum and copper producers. Vedanta Aluminium, an aluminum company under the Vedanta Group, was demerged and listed independently from its parent company in May 2026 and is one of India's largest aluminum producers. Both companies have recently been influenced by a combination of factors, including aluminum price volatility, geopolitical changes, and their respective capacity expansions and cost control measures.
