Wedoany.com Report-Jun 2, Ukraine’s wheat market, in the transition between old and new harvests, displays varied trends but holds promising long-term prospects, according to the analytical department of PUSK, an agricultural cooperative under the VAR. The market is currently in an off-season phase, with most of the previous harvest sold and demand moderating. Analysts noted a brief price dip last week, followed by a return to an upward trend by the week’s end, signaling resilience in the market.

PUSK analysts stated: “The market is actually off-season. The old harvest has almost been sold off — there is demand for it, but not that significant.” They highlighted that reduced global wheat supply and weather challenges in major producing countries, such as Russia and the USA, enhance the competitiveness of Ukraine’s upcoming harvest. Weather risks are expected to drive prices higher, with projections suggesting third-class wheat could reach $230–240 per ton in the fall and up to $260 later in the season.

The European market poses challenges for Ukrainian wheat exports due to the reintroduction of pre-war trade rules with the EU, including duties and quotas, effective June 6, 2025. PUSK observed: “From June 6, Ukraine returns to the pre-war model of trade with the EU — with duties and quotas, which will significantly limit exports to Europe.” As a result, traders are shifting focus to Asian markets, including the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Bangladesh, where demand for Ukrainian wheat remains strong, supporting export opportunities without impacting domestic consumption.

Experts advise farmers to avoid rushing into forward contracts, as low supply could push prices up by $2–3 per week. The positive outlook for Ukraine’s wheat market is driven by global demand and constrained supply, positioning the country to capitalize on higher prices. This development supports Ukraine’s agricultural sector, contributing to economic stability through export revenue while ensuring sufficient grain for local use.

The PUSK analysis underscores Ukraine’s potential to navigate market challenges and leverage its wheat production for global competitiveness, particularly in Asian markets, fostering growth in the agricultural economy.