Brazil's PV module imports fell 48% in the first half of 2026

en.Wedoany.com Reported - Brazil imported 5.48 GW of PV modules in the first half of 2026, down 48% from 10.57 GW in the same period of 2025, a decrease of about 5.1 GW in absolute import capacity. The figures come from a survey by consultancy Greener. The contraction in imports reflects a sharp slowdown in local demand for PV equipment, with utility-scale projects hit hardest.

Imports declined year on year in nearly every month during the six-month period, falling 71.6% in March and 60.7% in April. May was the only exception, with imports rising 6.5% year on year. In absolute monthly terms, imports fell from 2.33 GW to 1.12 GW in January, from 2.19 GW to 1.02 GW in February, and from 2.03 GW to 576.7 MW in March.

The contraction in the centralized generation segment was particularly severe. Module imports for utility-scale projects fell 82%, from 2.3 GW in the first half of 2025 to 430 MW in the same period of 2026. Luiza Bertazzoli, head of market intelligence at Greener, said curtailment is the main factor behind the decline in imports, as it reduces projects' expected revenue and increases the perceived risk of new investment.

She also noted that the supply-demand imbalance is linked to the large number of projects hastily approved in recent years to meet deadlines for electricity price discounts, while growth in distributed micro and mini generation exceeded expectations and further intensified competition for grid capacity. Greener said curtailment is eroding the profitability of utility-scale projects and discouraging new equipment purchases.

The decline in the distributed generation segment was relatively moderate, with module imports falling 39%, from 8.2 GW to about 5 GW. Despite the overall decline, distributed generation's share of module imports rose from 78% in the first half of 2025 to 92% in the same period of 2026, while centralized generation's share fell from 22% to 8%.

Greener attributed the slowdown in distributed generation to multiple factors: after years of rapid expansion, the market is entering a more mature stage, with high interest rates, reduced use of sales financing and grid connection restrictions weighing on demand. Citing a Greener survey, Bertazzoli said the share of sales involving financing has fallen from 57% in 2021 to 41% in 2026. Refusals of grid connection by distribution utilities due to reverse power flows are another obstacle, a problem particularly severe in Minas Gerais, where 79% of system integrators reported encountering such cases in 2025, compared with a national average of 33%. Remote distributed generation is also affected by the gradual introduction of the "Fio B" portion of the TUSD distribution tariff, which reaches 60% in 2026, reducing the economic benefit of generating at one location and offsetting electricity consumption elsewhere with credits.

Alongside the decline in imports, equipment prices rose. In the first half of 2026, the weighted average FOB price of modules increased 12.9%, from $0.0802/W in the same period of 2025 to $0.0906/W, with the increase concentrated in the second quarter. The average price reached $0.1042/W in May, the highest level in the period, 29% above the $0.0816/W recorded in January. Greener attributed the increase to China's gradual removal of the 9% export incentive for PV modules starting in April, which has put upward pressure on equipment costs in the international market.

The consultancy expects manufacturers to pass on only a small portion of the increase to buyers in the second half of the year. Bertazzoli said the impact of the end of China's module export subsidy was already absorbed in the first half of 2026 and represents a permanent change, but the pass-through to end buyers may remain limited because China's excess capacity is forcing manufacturers to absorb part of the cost within their margins. She also noted that polysilicon prices began to rise slightly in August after China introduced policies aimed at curbing overproduction, a change that could further put upward pressure on module prices.