en.Wedoany.com Reported - The global orange juice market is undergoing its most significant structural adjustment in nearly a decade. A survey based on historical data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) report "Citrus: World Markets and Trade" shows that global orange juice consumption fell by 46.5% between the 2010/11 and 2025/26 marketing years, while global orange production declined by only 18% over the same period. This means that over the past 16 years, the number of oranges consumed globally as juice has decreased by approximately 2 billion boxes (each weighing 40.8 kg).

The survey was conducted by CitrusBR, an entity representing the major exporting companies of this commodity. In the 2010/11 marketing year, global orange juice consumption was equivalent to 588.4 million boxes of oranges, while in 2025/26 it is projected to be only 314.5 million boxes. The market has shrunk by nearly half in 15 years. Ibiapaba Netto, Executive Director of CitrusBR, pointed out that this contraction cannot be entirely attributed to changes in consumer behavior. He stated that fruit shortages due to poor harvests have driven up juice prices, reaching unprecedented levels in the 2023/24, 2024/25, and 2025/26 harvest seasons, impacting prices for bottlers and on retail shelves for consumers in the United States and Europe.

The supply crisis has accelerated the demand crisis. In Brazil, the world's largest producer and exporter of orange juice, the spread of Huanglongbing (HLB) disease and consecutive poor harvests have significantly reduced the supply of oranges available for processing. The citrus belt in São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro region of Minas Gerais, the world's largest orange juice producing area, is under increasing pressure from worsening climate anomalies and disease spread. Forecasts for the 2026/27 season indicate a production decline of nearly 13%, while HLB has already affected nearly half of the fruit trees in the region. Between 2023 and 2025, international orange juice prices reached historic highs, making the product significantly more expensive for bottlers, retailers, and end consumers.

Consumers are buying less, retailers are reducing promotions, and orange juice is being replaced in several markets by other beverages perceived as more affordable. Brazil's inventory situation also illustrates this change. Data released by CitrusBR in 2026 shows that global stocks of Brazilian orange juice increased by 75.4%. This growth is not due to a surge in supply, but rather because demand absorbed fewer products following record-high prices. Ibiapaba Netto commented at the time that the increase in inventories generally reflects a stabilization of demand in key markets after the period of high prices in the previous season.

Data from the USDA shows that global fresh orange consumption has remained largely stable. In the 2010/11 marketing year, approximately 706 million boxes of oranges were used for the fresh market, compared to an estimated 698 million boxes in 2025/26, a decline of only 1.1%. Global consumers are still consuming oranges, but the form of consumption has changed. The share of fresh fruit in global orange usage has jumped from 51.5% to 62%, while the share used for processing has fallen from 47.6% to 37%. In the 2010/11 marketing year, the processing industry handled about 653 million boxes of oranges annually; by 2025/26, this volume will be only 418 million boxes, meaning 235 million fewer oranges enter juice factories each year. CitrusBR states that the processing industry has absorbed approximately 95% of the total reduction in global orange supply during this period.

The divergence between production and consumption indicators suggests the industry is facing more than just a simple low-supply cycle. Between 2010/11 and 2025/26, global production fell by 18%, while juice consumption dropped by 46.5%. This gap indicates that the industry's share within the orange market itself is shrinking. This change stems partly from the emergence of new beverages, the rise of products perceived as healthier or functional, reduced sugar intake, and the waning tradition of pairing orange juice with breakfast in developed markets. Record-high prices over the past three years have accelerated the already gradual erosion of demand. Now, the challenge facing the global citrus industry chain is how to win back lost consumers, precisely as signs of supply recovery emerge in Brazil and international prices begin to fall. Ibiapaba Netto posed the question facing the industry: when prices eventually fall back to more affordable levels, how many consumers will return to the shelves?

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