IGC: Global Grain Production Forecast for 2026-27 Cut by 6 Million Tons

en.Wedoany.com Reported - The latest Grain Market Report released by the International Grains Council (IGC) on August 20 shows that the global grain production forecast for the 2026-27 marketing year has been cut by 6 million tons, with wheat production lowered by 4 million tons to 817 million tons and corn reduced by 1 million tons to 1.305 billion tons. The report expects significant year-on-year declines in wheat and corn production.

Despite the consecutive downward revisions, total global grain production is still projected at 2.415 billion tons, the second highest level in history, 3% below last year's record harvest. The report states that Europe's production outlook has further deteriorated due to persistent high temperatures, with the EU forecast having been revised down for the second consecutive month.

On the trade front, total global grain trade is expected to decline 3.5% year-on-year to 451 million tons, mainly due to a 13 million ton reduction in wheat shipments. The IGC noted that the war between Russia and Ukraine is the primary driver behind the expected decline in wheat trade; with heightened security risks, seaborne exports from both countries have effectively come to a standstill. The shipping halt has so far mainly affected wheat flows, with exports estimated to be about 4 million tons below normal levels since hostilities intensified in mid-July. The IGC stated that market impact has been relatively limited so far, partly due to weak import demand, but will largely depend on the duration and severity of the disruption.

Compared with the lowered production outlook, consumption is expected to remain stable, with global grain ending stocks projected to fall 4.5% to 606 million tons. For soybeans, driven by larger harvests in the United States and Brazil, global soybean production and trade volumes are expected to hit records of 441 million tons and 190 million tons, respectively. Rice production has been slightly revised down in the latest forecast to 441 million tons, 6 million tons less than last year.

Amid heightened geopolitical and weather risks, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) has risen 3% since the July report, reaching a two-year high, with net gains recorded across all crops. The index is nearly 14% higher than in August 2025, with wheat and soybeans both up 16% year-on-year.