Russia Lowers 2026 Crude Oil Output Forecast to 494.2 Million Tons

en.Wedoany.com Reported - On September 1, a draft of Russia's government baseline scenario forecast showed that Russia's oil production in 2026 is expected to fall to 494.2 million tons, down 17.2 million tons from 2025, equivalent to approximately 9.88 million barrels per day. If this forecast materializes, it would mark the lowest annual output since 2009. The relevant forecast is expected to be finalized by the end of September and will be used for Russia's national budget planning.

This adjustment covers the period from 2026 to 2029. Compared with the previous forecast released in May this year, the Russian government has lowered its oil production projections for these four years by 16 million to 20 million tons each. Production in 2027 is expected to recover to 500 million tons, but is still 16 million tons lower than the May forecast; production in 2028 and 2029 is expected to continue recovering, though it will remain below 2025 levels.

Russia's crude oil export forecast shows a different trend from production. The draft projects crude oil exports of 244.7 million tons in 2026, up from 230.8 million tons in 2025, and 7.5 million tons higher than the May forecast. Exports in 2027 are expected to fall back to 232.5 million tons, further declining to 216.6 million tons in 2028 and 2029.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak confirmed in June this year that Russia's oil production has declined since the beginning of the year, attributing part of the decline to unscheduled maintenance at refineries. Recently, some of Russia's refining facilities have been affected, leading to a decline in fuel production and a shift of more crude oil toward exports, with China and India being the main export markets.

Refined product export forecasts have been revised down significantly in tandem. The draft projects Russia's fuel exports in 2026 to decrease by 27.3 million tons to 98.5 million tons, 24.1 million tons lower than the May version forecast. Fuel exports in 2027 are expected to recover to 113.1 million tons, but are still nearly 13 million tons lower than 2025 and 21 million tons below the previous forecast.

Russia has imposed restrictions on diesel exports and has taken measures to limit overseas sales of gasoline and aviation fuel. Under the current baseline scenario, oil production declines in 2026 while crude oil exports increase, and crude export volumes will decline consecutively from 2027 to 2029; fuel exports, after a notable decline in 2026, will partially recover in 2027. The final forecast figures will be finalized by the end of September.