OPEC+ Core Members Expected to Maintain October Crude Oil Output Policy Unchanged

en.Wedoany.com Reported - On September 3, OPEC+ core oil-producing countries are expected to maintain their October crude oil output policy unchanged at the monthly video conference scheduled for September 6. Sources close to the discussions indicated that members including Saudi Arabia and Russia currently lean toward pausing further production increases, and the meeting is not expected to make new adjustments regarding additional supply for October.

The seven countries participating in this monthly output coordination include Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman. OPEC previously confirmed that these countries would increase their production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day in September, an adjustment stemming from the additional voluntary production cut arrangement implemented in April 2023. Under the current restoration path, once this round of output adjustments is completed in September, member countries will shift focus to topics such as the 2027 production baseline.

Two delegates involved in the discussions stated that the seven countries have preliminarily agreed to delay the restoration of another portion of idle supply until at least early 2027, and the September 6 meeting is not expected to discuss alternative plans to change this arrangement. This stance remains a pre-meeting arrangement for now, and the final output policy is subject to the official decision of the meeting.

At present, a gap remains between member countries' nominal production quotas and actual supply. The ongoing conflict in Iran continues to affect crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, making it difficult for some Middle Eastern oil producers to actually increase exports in line with the raised quotas; supply from members such as Russia and Kazakhstan is also constrained to varying degrees.

At its previous monthly meeting on August 2, OPEC+ confirmed that the September output adjustment would be 188,000 barrels per day and continued to require member countries that had previously overproduced to implement compensatory production cuts. OPEC+ is also advancing an assessment of member countries' maximum sustainable capacity, with the results set to serve as an important basis for negotiations on the 2027 production baseline.