EIA: AI Drives Up Electricity Use, Power Generation to Rise to 4.37 Trillion kWh in 2026

en.Wedoany.com Reported - On September 9, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its September Short-Term Energy Outlook, projecting that U.S. power generation will grow 2.2% year over year in 2026 to a record 4.368 trillion kWh, and rise another 1.7% on that basis in 2027. U.S. electricity sales are expected to increase from about 4.06 trillion kWh in 2025 to 4.135 trillion kWh in 2026, a year-over-year increase of nearly 2%, and further to 4.211 trillion kWh in 2027. Data center construction and increased manufacturing activity are the main sources of electricity demand growth in the commercial and industrial sectors.

The EIA expects the U.S. Central Southwest region to continue contributing the largest share of new electricity sales nationwide. The region, which includes Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, has concentrated data center construction and new manufacturing load. Although some new data center projects in Texas have faced suspensions or delays in connecting to the grid, the Central Southwest will remain the region with the largest increase in U.S. electricity demand during the EIA's forecast period.

From the end-use sector perspective, the commercial sector has become an important component of this round of new electricity demand. Large cloud computing and artificial intelligence data centers are typically counted as commercial electricity consumption, while manufacturing expansion continues to increase industrial sector electricity use. Related forecasts show that in 2026, U.S. residential sector electricity use will be about 1.527 trillion kWh, the commercial sector about 1.542 trillion kWh, and the industrial sector about 1.059 trillion kWh; both the residential and commercial sectors will reach new annual highs.

The power supply mix will also continue to adjust with demand growth. The EIA expects natural gas to remain the largest source of U.S. power generation, maintaining a share of about 40% of national generation from 2026 to 2027; nuclear power's share will remain at about 18%. Coal's share is expected to fall from 17% in 2025 to 14% in 2027, while renewable energy's share of generation will rise from 24% to 27% over the same period.

The EIA expects that new generation demand in 2026 and 2027 will be met jointly by natural gas, solar, wind, and other power sources. Increased natural gas generation will also drive growth in natural gas consumption by the power sector; the EIA forecasts over the same period that U.S. natural gas-related carbon dioxide emissions will increase in 2027, with the main increase coming from natural gas power generation.

U.S. electricity demand growth is now directly linked to the progress of large data center project construction. The EIA's latest forecast continues to list data center development as the main driver of commercial electricity demand growth and identifies the Central Southwest as the nation's leading region for electricity sales growth. The forecast of 4.368 trillion kWh of power generation in 2026 and the judgment of continued 1.7% growth in 2027 cover new electricity demand that has already entered the construction, grid connection, and load integration stages.