U.S. EIA Raises Natural Gas Forecast, 2026 Production to Rise to 111.7 Billion Cubic Feet per Day

en.Wedoany.com Reported - On September 9, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its September Short-Term Energy Outlook, raising its forecast for U.S. dry natural gas production in 2026 from 111.2 billion cubic feet per day in August to 111.7 billion cubic feet per day, while also raising its forecast for domestic natural gas consumption in 2026 from 92 billion cubic feet per day to 92.2 billion cubic feet per day. The EIA expects U.S. natural gas production and domestic consumption to set consecutive annual records in 2026 and 2027. Dry natural gas production is projected to further increase to 115.9 billion cubic feet per day in 2027, with domestic consumption rising to 94.3 billion cubic feet per day.

U.S. dry natural gas production in 2025 was approximately 107.6 billion cubic feet per day, already at a historic high; according to the September forecast, it will increase by approximately 4.1 billion cubic feet per day in 2026, and by approximately another 4.2 billion cubic feet per day in 2027 compared with 2026. The EIA's latest monthly data records show that from January to June 2026, U.S. dry natural gas production was approximately 108.8 billion, 110.7 billion, 110.7 billion, 111 billion, 110.5 billion, and 112.3 billion cubic feet per day, respectively.

The EIA expects the Permian Basin and Haynesville shale region to account for approximately 70% of the increase in U.S. natural gas production in 2026 and 2027. Previously, the EIA's statistics for the first half of 2026 showed that U.S. marketed natural gas production averaged 121.3 billion cubic feet per day, an increase of approximately 4.6 billion cubic feet per day year-on-year, with the increase mainly concentrated in producing areas in Texas, New Mexico, and Louisiana.

On the consumption side, the EIA raised its forecast for U.S. domestic natural gas consumption from 91.9 billion cubic feet per day in 2025 to 92.2 billion cubic feet per day in 2026, and expects it to reach 94.3 billion cubic feet per day in 2027. Industrial sector natural gas consumption had already reached a record level of approximately 23.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, and the EIA expects it to continue growing in 2026 and 2027.

Natural gas exports are expanding in tandem. The EIA's latest forecast shows that U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports will increase from 15.1 billion cubic feet per day in 2025 to 17.4 billion cubic feet per day in 2026, and further reach 18.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2027. In the first half of 2026, U.S. LNG exports already averaged 17.4 billion cubic feet per day, a year-on-year increase of 23%; the commissioning of new liquefaction facilities and the expansion of existing facilities have increased export capacity.

On inventories, the EIA expects U.S. natural gas inventories to reach 3,969 billion cubic feet by the end of October 2026, approximately 5% above the five-year average for the same period and approximately 1% above the end of October 2025. The EIA links the relatively high inventory levels to growth in natural gas production, with the Permian Basin and Haynesville region being the main sources of increased production during the forecast period.