IEA: Global coal demand to rise 1.2% to 8.94 billion tonnes in 2026

en.Wedoany.com Reported - On September 10, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released the "Coal Mid-Year Update 2026," revising its forecast for global coal demand in 2026 to a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, with full-year demand expected to reach 8.94 billion tonnes, a record high. The IEA had previously projected a slight year-on-year decline in global coal demand for 2026; this latest forecast has shifted from a decline to growth.

The IEA said that disruptions to oil and liquefied natural gas shipping caused by the Middle East conflict pushed up natural gas prices, leading some markets with both gas-fired and coal-fired power generation capacity to increase coal-fired output. Coal use in markets including Europe, Japan, South Korea, and China was higher than previously forecast. The power sector currently accounts for about two-thirds of global coal consumption.

China's coal demand is also being affected by changes in non-power sectors. The IEA said that after oil prices rose, China's coal consumption for chemical production increased. At the same time, stronger El Niño weather expected in 2026 will boost cooling electricity demand in Asian markets such as India and Vietnam, and may reduce hydropower output in some regions.

Global coal demand already reached a record high of about 8.85 billion tonnes in 2025. In its annual coal market report released in December 2025, the IEA estimated that year's global demand at about 8.85 billion tonnes; the latest forecast means global consumption in 2026 will increase by about 90 million tonnes on that basis.

On the supply side, the IEA expects global coal production to decline year-on-year in 2026, but still remain above 9 billion tonnes for a third consecutive year. China strengthened safety inspections after a major mine accident in May, and domestic coal production subsequently fell.

Demand trends in 2027 remain highly uncertain. The IEA expects that if liquefied natural gas shipping through the Strait of Hormuz recovers and natural gas prices fall back to pre-conflict levels, global coal demand may decline; if the strait continues to broadly restrict LNG shipping, coal demand may increase further.