EIA expects Brent crude oil prices to average $84 per barrel in 2027

en.Wedoany.com Reported - On October 6, the U.S. Energy Information Administration released the October edition of its Short-Term Energy Outlook, raising its forecast for the average spot price of Brent crude oil in 2026 to $96 per barrel, up from the September forecast of $91 per barrel; the average price forecast for 2027 was raised from $74 per barrel to $84 per barrel. The EIA also raised its forecast for the average Brent crude oil price in the fourth quarter of 2026 to $105 per barrel, an increase of $14 per barrel from the September forecast.

The average spot price of Brent crude oil in September was $114 per barrel, up $23 per barrel from August. The EIA said that Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline temporarily halted transportation after being attacked; the pipeline had previously handled more than 5 million barrels per day of oil exports via Yanbu Port. Due to supply constraints, the Brent spot price briefly rose to $131 per barrel on September 15.

The EIA estimates that global oil inventories fell by an average of 1.9 million barrels per day in the third quarter of 2026 and are expected to continue declining by 700,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter. The agency expects oil production and exports in the Middle East to gradually recover thereafter, with the scale of Middle East production shutdowns declining from 4.5 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026 to 2.7 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2027.

In terms of refined products, the average U.S. retail price of diesel in September was $6.29 per gallon, and gasoline was $4.35 per gallon. The EIA expects the retail price of diesel to remain above $6 per gallon in October and to average about $4.49 per gallon in 2027; distillate inventories on the U.S. East Coast in September were 32% below the five-year average for the same period and are expected to remain 20%–30% below throughout the winter.

This forecast was completed on October 1, so it incorporates the 40 million-barrel Strategic Petroleum Reserve exchange arrangement announced by the United States on September 29, but does not include any additional crude oil or refined product supply that may enter the market after October 2 from the Group of Seven.