CRU Forecasts Chile Sulfuric Acid Price to Fall 52% in 2027 from 2026 Peak

en.Wedoany.com Reported - On October 20, UK commodity research firm CRU released its sulfuric acid market forecast during the London Metal Exchange annual event, projecting that the price of sulfuric acid delivered to Chile in the fourth quarter of 2027 will drop to USD 215 per tonne, a decline of approximately 52.3% from the historical high of USD 451 per tonne set in 2026. CRU analyst Chris Lawson also expects that the spot copper concentrate treatment charge (TC) will recover from the current level of nearly negative USD 300 per tonne to negative USD 75 in the fourth quarter of 2027.

CRU analyst Chris Lawson stated that sulfuric acid prices are expected to continue declining in 2027 but will remain above the historical average. This price forecast takes sulfuric acid delivered to Chile as the statistical subject, with the benchmark price being the peak of USD 451 per tonne reached in 2026, rather than the global average sulfuric acid price. The institution also expects that the decline in sulfur and sulfuric acid prices will be accompanied by a recovery in copper concentrate treatment charges.

The pricing structure for copper concentrate procurement has also changed. Data published by CRU analyst Tom Rutland shows that the share of copper concentrate procurement using 12-month fixed contract pricing fell from 52% in 2024 to 14% in 2026, while the share using index-based pricing rose from 12% to 51%.

Chinese customs data released on October 20 shows that in September 2026, China resumed sulfuric acid exports to Chile, ending a three-month suspension of exports to the country. In that month, China exported 31,666 tonnes of sulfuric acid to Chile, accounting for 93.5% of the country's total sulfuric acid exports of 33,873 tonnes for the month; the export volume to Chile in May was 24,195 tonnes. China's total monthly sulfuric acid exports in June and July were both below 1,000 tonnes, recovering to 33,900 tonnes in September, but still below the 116,700 tonnes in May.

During the same period, China's sulfuric acid export market continued to be affected by changes in sulfur raw material supply. Sulfur and sulfuric acid supply from the Middle East was disrupted by regional conflicts, and China imposed measures to restrict sulfuric acid exports in May 2026. China's total sulfuric acid exports in September fell 92.13% year-on-year, with cumulative exports of approximately 821,700 tonnes in the first nine months of 2026, down 76.42% year-on-year.