Chilean Copper Commission Cuts 2026 Copper Production Forecast to 4.94 Million Tons

en.Wedoany.com Reported - On October 30, the Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco) released its third-quarter copper market forecast, lowering the country's 2026 copper mine production estimate to 4.94 million tons, down 8.4% year on year, with output expected to rebound 3% to 5.08 million tons in 2027. From January to September 2026, Chile produced a cumulative 3.63 million tons of copper, down 8.5% year on year. The Escondida copper mine, Codelco and the Spence copper mine together accounted for 77.3% of the country's net production decline.

Cochilco noted that some major copper mines have been affected by declining ore grades, equipment maintenance and production interruptions, putting sustained pressure on ore processing and copper recovery operations. Based on the latest full-year forecast, Chile needs to achieve average monthly copper output of about 434,000 tons in the fourth quarter, 7.6% higher than the average monthly level in the first three quarters.

The expected increase in 2027 will mainly come from the recovery of production at existing mines and output from certain expansion projects. Cochilco expects that the 2027 rebound will offset only about one-third of the 2026 decline, with the actual pace of recovery still depending on operations at major mines.

On the global supply side, Cochilco expects world copper mine production to fall 0.6% to 23.30 million tons in 2026 and grow 3.4% to 24.08 million tons in 2027. Chile, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mongolia, Zambia and Indonesia will be important sources of additional copper mine supply in 2027, with Chile and the Democratic Republic of the Congo expected to contribute a combined approximately 37% of the increase in global mine output.

Price forecasts were also raised. Cochilco raised its 2026 average copper price forecast to $6.18 per pound from $5.95, and its 2027 forecast to $5.95 from $5.10. Global refined copper is expected to show a supply surplus of 144,000 tons in 2026, widening to 215,000 tons in 2027.