Wedoany.com Report-Dec.18, Brazil has concluded its 2024/25 corn season with a record harvest estimated by CONAB at 141 million metric tons. Exports reached 33 million tons through early November, with projections of 40 million tons by January 2026. Strong domestic demand has supported steady price increases in recent months.

Farmers' approach of retaining stocks in anticipation of better returns has proven effective. The ESALQ B3 physical index for the Campinas region in São Paulo state advanced USD 0.83 per 60-kg bag (+6.88%) from October to November, rising from USD 12.07 to USD 12.90. By December 4, it gained a further USD 0.28 (+2.17%), attaining USD 13.18, the highest since late May.

B3 exchange futures initially rose sharply, influenced by concerns over early weather and soybean development, pushing the January contract to USD 14.34 per bag. The spread to the physical index widened temporarily to USD 1.30. By mid-December, futures adjusted downward, trading near USD 13.34 on December 11, while the prior day's ESALQ B3 index stood at USD 12.74, reducing the gap to USD 0.60.

CONAB's December update showed minor revisions. Soybean production was slightly lowered from 177.6 to 177.12 million tons due to a small decrease in planted area (from 49.06 to 48.84 million hectares). Yield expectations held at 3,620 kg/ha, with generally favorable crop conditions despite limited replanting needs.

Corn estimates increased marginally to 138.88 million tons overall. The composition includes the summer crop at 25.91 million tons (18.65%), the safrinha second crop at 110.46 million tons (79.54%), and the third crop at 2.51 million tons (1.81%).

Export forecasts remain at 46.5 million tons for the full season, with domestic consumption projected at a record 94.6 million tons. Beginning stocks in February 2026 are anticipated at 14.06 million tons, supplemented by 1.7 million tons of imports, leading to ending stocks of 13.54 million tons by January 2027.

For the 2024/25 marketing year through January, exports are maintained at 40 million tons. With 33 million tons already shipped by early November, the remaining volume appears achievable.

Major buyers from February to November included Iran (6.35 million tons, 20.3%), Egypt (5.68 million tons, 18.2%), Vietnam (3.02 million tons, 9.7%), China (1.71 million tons, 5.5%), and Saudi Arabia (1.64 million tons, 5.3%).

Soybean progress continues positively, positioning Brazil for another substantial harvest near 177 million tons, consistent with official and private assessments.

The upcoming safrinha corn planting, starting late January and February, supports expectations of around 140 million tons nationally. Growing internal consumption has altered supply-demand dynamics, limiting downward price pressure from large outputs.

Apart from potential brief softness in January from initial supplies, market firmness is anticipated. Sustained domestic requirements underscore the need for robust production volumes, likely contributing to heightened price variability in 2026 as local usage plays a greater role in determining values.