According to experts from the Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service, the ongoing drought conditions in Texas are leading to a gradual reduction in hay supplies, raising concerns about grazing conditions and forage production as livestock producers prepare for spring.

Extension Forage Specialist Dr. Vanessa Corriher Olson reported that many farms entered the year with leftover hay from the productive 2025 season, but quality varies, and the persistent drought has accelerated hay usage. Long-term weather forecasts predict above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall, increasing uncertainty for warm-season forage production and pasture recovery.

With pastures struggling to green up, producers are relying more heavily on supplemental feeding. Since September, Central Texas has received about eight inches less rain than normal, limiting grazing recovery despite recent scattered showers. Agents report that livestock producers have significantly drawn down stored supplies, but regional availability is uneven.

The hay market reflects a mixed situation. The USDA's Texas Direct Hay Report lists average round bale prices between $75 and $85, with premium bales ranging from $110 to $145. Some areas still have leftover inventory from last year's good harvest, but Extension agents anticipate supplies will tighten if drought conditions persist.

Looking ahead, drought stress combined with emerging risks such as pasture mealybug infestations could further challenge this season's forage production and livestock feeding plans.

Many farmers have chosen to store grain longer this year, waiting for improved market opportunities. While the goal is to sell at better prices, extended storage increases the risk of grain quality loss, creating additional challenges for producers managing farm inventories.