en.Wedoany.com Reported - According to the production plan released by Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, as cited by the Japan Metal Daily, Japan's crude steel output for April-June 2025 is projected at 20.72 million tons, up 2.8% year-on-year, marking the first year-on-year increase in 10 quarters. Although this represents an improvement from the prolonged downturn since late 2023, output remains at historically low levels, equivalent to an annualized production of approximately 83 million tons.
The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry stated that the overall demand environment has not undergone significant changes, with domestic and overseas sales conditions largely on par with the previous fiscal year. However, instability in the Middle East situation, intensifying supply-demand imbalances in China's steel sector, and uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies remain persistent risks. The latest production plan exceeds the 20 million tons forecast in early April by over 700,000 tons, indicating that steelmakers' expectations for operating conditions are slightly better than initial assessments.
By product category, planned output for ordinary steel stands at 13.97 million tons, up 1.4% year-on-year; planned output for special steel is 3.89 million tons, up 2.4% year-on-year. Total planned steel production is 17.86 million tons, of which domestic shipments are expected to be 11.95 million tons and exports are projected at 5.9 million tons. Domestic sales may see slight improvement, but export demand remains under pressure, reflecting weak overseas market demand and the ongoing strain on export markets from China's steel oversupply.
Production plans for construction steel remain cautious. Planned output for H-beams is 750,000 tons, an increase of about 10,000 tons quarter-on-quarter and 30,000 tons year-on-year; planned output for small bars is 1.61 million tons, up about 140,000 tons quarter-on-quarter but down 50,000 tons year-on-year. Affected by labor shortages, project execution delays, and rising material costs, construction steel demand continues to be sluggish. While producers such as electric arc furnace steelmakers have seen slight improvements alongside overall output, they maintain a cautious production stance.
Looking ahead, Japan's steel industry is showing initial signs of stabilization after a prolonged downturn, but the strength of recovery remains limited. Crude steel output is poised for its first year-on-year increase since late 2023, yet domestic and international demand conditions remain weak. Construction steel demand continues to face structural pressures, while external risks such as the China factor, geopolitical tensions, and trade policies continue to weigh on market sentiment. The increase in production plans reflects more of a stabilization at low operating rates rather than the beginning of a sustained recovery.
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