en.Wedoany.com Reported - Two new studies indicate that projects related to China's Belt and Road Initiative have generated far higher carbon emissions than expected, requiring stricter environmental policies and large-scale investment in clean manufacturing technologies to reduce emissions.

According to a study published Monday in the journal Environmental Science & Technology, from 2008 to 2024, transportation, energy, construction, and water projects associated with China's Belt and Road Initiative cumulatively emitted over 130 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent. The study conducted a global project-level assessment of greenhouse gas emissions from more than 700 projects across 105 countries.

This multi-trillion-dollar development initiative aims to help expand Beijing's global influence. According to estimates from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) greenhouse gas equivalency calculator, the emissions from these 700 projects are equivalent to the annual climate pollution from 35 coal-fired power plants.

About half of the greenhouse gas emissions from these projects occur outside the host countries.

Lingli Hou, a researcher at Leiden University in the Netherlands and lead author of the study, stated that this is not just about the host countries; all participants in the supply chain influence these embedded emissions.

The study shows that carbon-intensive steel accounts for 53% of total project emissions. China, as the main source of steel manufacturing emissions, is the primary contributor to supply chain emissions from Belt and Road projects.

China produces more than half of the world's steel, and its manufacturing emissions account for about 15% of the country's total carbon dioxide emissions. Whether China can achieve its goals of peaking greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and reaching carbon neutrality by 2060 depends critically on the extent of emission reductions from steel production.

Kate Logan, Director of the China Climate Center and Climate Diplomacy at the Asia Society Policy Institute, said in a written statement that about 90% of China's steel is still produced using blast furnaces burning coal, the dirtiest process, making China's steel industry a global hotspot for emissions. However, if it becomes cleaner, it also presents a huge opportunity.

Another study published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences concluded that a combination of carrot-and-stick policies—incentivizing clean technologies while pricing carbon—is needed to accelerate this transition.

Xiao Liu, a researcher at the School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, and the State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, and lead author of the study, stated that isolated policy measures alone cannot achieve ambitious climate goals. The study simulated the responses of over 700 Chinese enterprises to different emission reduction policies.

Xiao Liu noted that steel production relying on hydrogen instead of coal could serve as a near-term solution, while electric arc furnaces using scrap steel will play an important role in the future.

Meanwhile, much of the steel used in Belt and Road projects goes into clean energy projects, which help reduce emissions by reducing the need for additional fossil fuel power plants.

The Environmental Science & Technology study found that from 2008 to 2024, the vast majority of energy projects built under the Belt and Road Initiative were renewable energy projects. It estimates that the emission reductions achieved by these clean energy projects within about two years or less of operation are equivalent to the total greenhouse gas emissions associated with the construction of all 706 Belt and Road projects.

This finding is similar to a 2025 report by Carbon Brief, which argued that China's export of clean energy technologies such as solar cells, batteries, and electric vehicles has reduced global greenhouse gas emissions outside China by 1%. The analysis shows that emissions related to the manufacturing of these products would be offset by emission reductions within less than a year of their operation.

Tomer Fishman, Assistant Professor of Industrial Ecology at Leiden University and co-author of the Environmental Science & Technology study, said future research will go beyond measuring the greenhouse gas emissions of Belt and Road projects to assess their broader impacts on host countries, including how they support these countries' development and the trade-offs involved.

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