en.Wedoany.com Reported - For most of the past decade, nickel prices were based on an assumption: Indonesia would supply nickel to the global market indefinitely. That assumption is now unraveling. In a recent Crux Investor roundtable discussion, Mark Selby, CEO of Canada Nickel Company, and Ingo Hofmaier, CFO of Lifezone Metals, said Indonesia's shift from oversupply to active management of quotas and pricing represents a structural reversal, not a temporary fluctuation.
For years prior, Chinese-funded low-cost nickel pig iron and mixed hydroxide precipitate capacity had depressed nickel prices and made it difficult for Western sulfide projects to secure financing. The two guests believe this phase has ended: prices of $18,000 to $19,000 per ton now represent Indonesia's own breakeven level and preferred operating range, rather than a floor the market might breach again. Selby said the trend has fundamentally reversed compared to before the end of 2025, and prices will not return to the $15,000 level; Indonesia essentially holds all the necessary levers—royalty adjustments, quota caps, and revised minimum price formulas—to push supply and prices higher, and is expected to continue using them over the next four to five years.
Physical indicators of tightening supply are already visible: Indonesian ore grades fell about 8% last year and are expected to decline another 4% to 5% this year. MHP production has fallen roughly 37% from its September 2025 peak, and its production depends on Indonesia burning imported sulfur domestically (Indonesia does not directly import sulfuric acid), with four of the top five sulfur suppliers located on the risk-exposed side of the Strait of Hormuz. Hofmaier believes upside price risk may be greater than what the forward curve reflects, partly depending on the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.
On the demand side, the biggest driver remains stainless steel rather than electric vehicles: stainless steel growth is estimated at 4.6% to 4.8% annually, covering applications such as corrosion resistance, high-temperature service, and food processing. Selby noted that analytical models lag behind reality—nickel demand has grown nearly 7% annually since 2019, and stainless steel has maintained 5% to 6% growth for decades, yet forward models default to roughly 3%. Low-carbon nickel is unlikely to command a "green premium" in the near term, but strong ESG credentials help secure strategic capital and financing.
Canada Nickel (TSXV:CNC) is advancing the Crawford nickel sulfide project in the Timmins region of Ontario, targeting a construction decision in 2027, and has received a positive federal government decision statement, making it the first mining project approved since Canada amended the Impact Assessment Act in 2019. The remaining gap is 10% to 20% of project or offtake financing, with the full financing package targeted for early 2027; strategic backers include Anglo American, Agnico Eagle, Samsung SDI, and Taykwa Tagamou Nation, the latter having invested $20 million last year.
Lifezone Metals (NYSE:LZM) is developing the Kabanga nickel-copper-cobalt project in Tanzania, with an average nickel grade exceeding 2%, reaching 2.4% in some years of an 18-year feasibility study, plus copper, cobalt, and payable silver as by-product credits. Capital expenditure is approximately $930 million, with over $800 million in procurement packages already released to the market; the company holds $37 million in cash, with $18.3 million still available under the Taurus standby financing facility. The project achieved bankability last year, with even higher margins this year. After completing the equity financing required for the final investment decision, roughly two and a half years of construction remain.
Both executives have direct financial interests in the nickel price outlook discussed.
