Intertek CEA Forecasts 638 GW of Global Solar PV Additions in 2026

en.Wedoany.com Reported - Intertek CEA, a solar and energy storage technology consulting firm, forecasts in its Q2 2026 PV Supply, Technology and Policy Report that global solar PV additions could reach 638 GW in 2026.

The report shows that global solar PV additions will fall below the previous year's level in 2026, before recovering growth through 2030. This year's decline is entirely driven by the Chinese market, which is facing a standstill, while most other regions worldwide are expected to see flat or accelerated growth.

The report also notes that structural overcapacity in the PV supply chain is "severe and persistent," with manufacturing capacity across all segments significantly exceeding expected 2026 demand. Polysilicon capacity stands at approximately 2,034 GW, corresponding to 638 GW of installations that year; module capacity is approximately 1,908 GW, with an oversupply exceeding 1.2 TW.

Intertek CEA's Q2 2026 PV Price Forecasting Report adds that Chinese module prices will continue to rise from 2026 to 2027, as suppliers "seek to expand profit margins and pass on material costs." U.S. module prices will remain high, with the market "awaiting clarity on potential tariff structures from the Section 232 investigation on polysilicon"; India's module pricing from 2026 to 2027 will remain influenced by Chinese input costs.

Intertek CEA expects prices to decline starting in 2028, citing market maturity and low but stable profit margins. Regional integrated production costs range from below $0.12/W to above $0.37/W; U.S. manufacturing subsidies have narrowed the cost gap between the U.S. and non-China regions to just $0.01–0.03/W. India's cell and module assembly, as well as module assembly in Southeast Asian markets, are expected to "eventually" narrow the price gap with China to $0.01–0.03/W as well, but EU module assembly is not expected to close the price gap with other markets.