NRF: U.S. September imports projected at 2.31 million TEU, the highest monthly level of 2026

en.Wedoany.com Reported - On September 9, the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates released the latest edition of the Global Port Tracker, raising their forecast for imports at major U.S. container ports in September 2026 to 2.31 million TEU, up 9.6% year over year. If realized, September would slightly exceed July's 2.30 million TEU and become the highest-import month since the start of 2026. July's 2.30 million TEU is the latest actual figure available, down 3.9% year over year and up 3.2% month over month; August has not yet produced final data, with the current forecast at 2.29 million TEU, down 1.3% year over year.

This forecast represents a marked change from judgments made earlier this year. In their May forecast, the NRF and Hackett Associates had projected September imports at 2.08 million TEU, down 1.3% year over year; based on the latest forecast of 2.31 million TEU, the September expectation has been revised up by 230,000 TEU, or about 11%. At the time, the report expected U.S. port imports to enter a year-over-year decline phase in late summer. The latest data instead show that the peak import season has been further extended.

The NRF links the shift of some cargo volume into September directly to changes in vessel schedules. Its September report shows that severe weather in China caused delays for some vessels, while some routes adjusted their courses due to potential drought conditions in the Panama Canal, pushing back cargo originally scheduled to arrive in the United States earlier. Hackett Associates also said that over the past three months U.S. imports have remained at relatively high levels despite rising tariffs, inflation and higher fuel prices, but there have already been vessel schedule delays and increased cargo turnaround times in the supply chain.

Current operating conditions at the Panama Canal are directly related to this change. The Panama Canal Authority previously announced that from September 15 the number of vessels allowed to transit daily will be further reduced to 32, while draft restrictions will be imposed on Neopanamax vessels. Dimension Network previously reported that some Asia-U.S. East Coast routes have already been affected by tighter canal capacity, with liner companies facing more limited lockage slots and some vessels needing to adjust routes or reduce loading capacity.

The latest forecast also provides a cargo volume path for the fourth quarter. October imports are projected at 2.11 million TEU, up 1.7% year over year; November is projected at 2.00 million TEU, down 0.9% year over year; and December is projected at 2.03 million TEU, up 1.1% year over year. On this basis, total imports at major U.S. ports in 2026 are projected to reach 25.7 million TEU, up 1% year over year and above 25.4 million TEU in 2025; first-half 2026 imports were 12.7 million TEU, up 1.1% year over year. January 2027 is projected at 2.09 million TEU, down 1% year over year.

The Global Port Tracker covers Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the U.S. West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast; and the Port of Houston on the Gulf Coast. The September figure of 2.31 million TEU is still a forecast value, not final port statistics.