Ukraine's 2026 Production Expected to Remain Flat Compared to 2025

Wedoany.com Report-Dec.30, According to the baseline scenario forecast by the GMK Center, Ukraine's steel production in 2026 may remain at a level of approximately 7.2 million tons, equivalent to the expected output for 2025. The center's analysis suggests that the capacity growth of Ukrainian metallurgical enterprises is nearing its limit.

The GMK Center also presented two other forecast scenarios. An optimistic forecast indicates that production could potentially recover to 7.6 million tons; whereas a pessimistic forecast suggests that, due to factors such as poor maritime logistics and restrictions in the European market, production might decline to between 6.3 and 6.6 million tons.

Data from the Ukrainian National Metallurgical Industry Association shows that the country's steel production in November was 641,100 tons, a decrease of 1.2% month-on-month, but an increase of 18.5% year-on-year. From January to November 2024, Ukraine's cumulative steel production was 6.81 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%.