Aluminum Billet Supply: 3.31 Million Tons of New Capacity Focused on High-End, Total Supply Expected to Reach 21 Million Tons by 2026

Wedoany.com Report on Feb 2nd, The aluminum billet supply side is showing a trend of structural optimization, with the overall growth pace slowing down. In terms of production structure, primary aluminum billet output has maintained relatively rapid growth for many years, while the supply of remelted aluminum billets is gradually decreasing. This change is mainly attributed to the cost and energy consumption advantages of primary aluminum billets, as they are located near aluminum smelters, aligning with the industry's drive to improve efficiency and reduce costs. It is also driven by policies related to liquid aluminum alloying.

The capacity landscape is undergoing a reshaping process, with market competition intensifying and outdated capacity with higher homogenization accelerating its exit. The scale of new capacity additions is limited and mostly concentrated in the higher value-added industrial aluminum billet sector. It is forecasted that between 2025 and 2026, China will add 3.31 million tons of new aluminum billet capacity, covering both primary and remelted aluminum billets, but the growth rate of capacity has significantly declined.

In terms of total volume, aluminum billet supply shows a moderate growth trend. The total aluminum billet supply in 2025 is expected to be approximately 20.43 million tons, roughly flat compared to the previous year. It is projected to approach 21 million tons in 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of about 2.5%. This growth level reflects the offsetting effects between optimized new capacity additions and the elimination of outdated capacity.